Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 October 2019

Lachstock Consulting, October 17, 2019
Wheat futures on Wednesday were higher; canola, corn and soybeans were lower.
  • Chicago wheat December contract up 6.25c to 513.25c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 3.75c to 425c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract 5c to 550.5c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €1.75 to €180;
  • Corn December contract down 1.5c to 391.75c;
  • Soybeans November contract down 6c to 928c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$1.40 to $460;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract down €0.75 to €381.75;
  • Brent crude December contract ; to revise
  • Dow Jones index up 22.82 points to 27001.98 points;
  • AUD strengthened to US$0.6758;
  • CAD strengthened to $1.3201;
  • EUR strengthened to $1.1075;

In the wheat pits Chicago settled up 6.25 usc/bu closing at 513.25usc/bu, Kansas was 3.75 usc/bu higher to settle at 425usc/bu, while Minni rallied 5 usc/bu to go out at 550.5usc/bu. Corn fell -1.5 usc/bu to go out at 391.75usc/bu while Beans were down -6 usc/bu to settle at 928usc/bu WCE Canola softened -1.4 CAD/mt closing at 460CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing lower by -1 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones fell -23.8 points, Crude was up 5292.12 bbl the Aussie was 0.0005 higher to settle at 0.67552, the CAD rallied 0.0003 while the EUR gained 0.0039

Egypt books higher-priced wheat

We came for the corn, but stayed for the wheat… Russian values are strong like a bull. GASC, the Egyptian wheat buyer and the most transparent wheat market in the world went shopping last night but had to pay US$8-9/t more than the last tender.

One thing about GASC – if there is a sniff that prices can trade lower they have historically passed on the tender – not today, paying the higher price for 405,000t of mainly Russian with some French and Ukraine in the mix.

While US wheat, HRW in particular is still a healthy premium to international values the rally in Black Sea prices does open the door into some freight advantaged markets such as West Africa. It also helps Australian relative value into Asia although, at the moment at least, Argy is the discount king.

In the latest episode of the China/US relations soap opera, the US House of Reps unanimously passed a package of measures to support the Hong Kong protesters.

President Trump would still need to sign off to enact into law which China has expressed their displeasure about, indicating they would impose some sort of retaliation.

There is still a lot of conjecture around the details of the trade agreement, so the timing of the US House bill is less than ideal.

This is a dog’s breakfast as China food inflation took another leg higher – led by wholesale pork increasing 14.pc. This was the driver behind domestic CPI increasing 3pc in September which represents the quickest pace in six years.

US isn’t the only one that can shift trade flows with a sternly worded comment. In a speech to the UN Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad scolded India for invading and occupying Kashmir.

India has been swift to react by switching palm demand from Malaysia to Indonesia and pulling on veg oil supplies from the Ukraine.

Given the relative tightness of the EU canola market this will have far reaching implications to global canola trade flows at a time where the Australian crop prospects are under pressure.

Australia

Locally more showers in the past 24hrs hit parts of SA and VIC and in the right places to where the crops are later, and the cool conditions also continue to benefit and stabilises production for the two states.

This has been supportive of some of the feedback coming out of the GIAV crop tour that finishes up today. The GIAV do a fantastic job and from all reports run well organised tour.

Forecast for QLD has some activity and could see storms roll through, still a long way off from getting enough moisture to make the decision to plant sorghum, or will growers make the decision to not put the planter in the paddock and save every bit of moisture for a decent winter crop?

Could this also be potentially the lowest sorghum crop Australia has produced in a long time?

Markets continued to yet again soften in wheat and barley down $2-3/t mainly in Vic and SA.

Starting to see more bidders on the cash boards now that harvest is kicking into gear through NSW, with cash numbers pricing off where grain can work into domestic homes.

Canola firmed a fraction on the boards as the balance sheet continues to tighten.

 

 

 

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