Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 October 2022

Lachstock Consulting, October 17, 2022

US wheat markets eased 3pc, as did Brent crude. Corn, soybean canola the Dow Jones Industrials Average down about 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US32.5 cents per bushel to 859.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 30c/bu at 952.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 24.75c/bu to 954.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €5.50/t to €350.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $2.75/t to $332/t;
  • Corn December contract down 8c/bu to 689.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 12c/bu to 1383.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2022 contract was down C$8.10 to $862.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract unchanged at €633.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract unchanged at A$483/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at $330/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.620.

International

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has published information saying it believes the explosives used to blow up the Kerch bridge originated from Odesa before travelling to Bulgaria by sea on ships leaving Ukraine as part of the grain deal. This would violate the grain deal terms, and Russia would have grounds to terminate the agreement or not extend it beyond the initial 19 November term. Russian President Putin said “If it turns out that humanitarian corridors are being used to commit terrorist acts, then, of course, this will call into question the functioning of this corridor.”

Despite this, officials from the UN were in Moscow to discuss the agreement renewal yesterday. Russia and Ukraine are both seeking changes to the deal as part of discussions to extend the initiative beyond the current deadline. Russia wants to see a pipeline that transports its ammonia to Ukraine’s Odesa port reopened as part of the new terms, UN coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Amir Abdulla, said in an interview in Istanbul on Friday. Ukraine is seeking to extend the deal by more than a year, and include Mykolayiv as a fourth exporting port, he said “It’s far too important to the rest of the world for it to be allowed to falter,” Abdulla said, adding that full negotiations are yet to start. “So, I think it will be extended. But there are no guarantees.”

According to FranceAgriMer French farmers had harvested 83pc of their corn crop by 10 October, compared with 67pc a week earlier and 14pc in the same week last year. The harvest remained 28 days ahead of last year’s pace and 18 days ahead of the five-year average. French soft-wheat crop was 21pc planted as of 10 Oct, up from 3pc a week earlier, which compares with 11pc at the same time last year. 

The Rosario Grains Exchange cut its 2022/23 Argentine wheat production estimate by another half a million tonnes, to 16.0Mt due to drought and cold temperatures and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also cut their estimate for from 17.5Mt to 16.5Mt (23Mt last year).

Australia

Markets remained practically unchanged at the end of last week. Harvest delivery slots remained standoff-ish and old crop rallied. It has become a logistical nightmare to get grain from upcountry to ports and mills.
 The impact of the rainfall last week is still being assessed but it is certainly not good for large parts of NSW and Victoria where crops are under water. Whilst the tonnage may still be there the impact on quality will be significant and the ability to harvest some of these crops will be the next big question.
 Unfortunately, the 8-day forecast is ugly with a widespread 50-100mm expected in Qld, NSW and parts of Vic and heavier localised falls of 100-150mm are possible over recently impacted areas. While totals might change in the lead up to this event, rainfall is pretty much guaranteed, and it won’t take much to see rivers rise again. 

 

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