International

The Russian Grain Exporters Union published indicative export prices for 12.5pc protein wheat from Novorossiysk at US$240/t fob October, $245/t Nov and $250/t Dec. The Union noted that members agreed to calculate and provide the market with price guidelines based on an understanding of fair export quotations, considering rising production costs, high interest rates and payment delays. It would then be up to the judgment of individual suppliers to decide whether to follow the guidance provided. 

World Weather Inc forecast much-needed rain in the next week for Russia’s Volga River Basin and Southern Region. It would likely promote aggressive late-season planting of winter wheat. Despite the forecast, much more moisture would be needed to alleviate moisture deficits and planted acreage may remain lower than usual. It noted parts of eastern Ukraine may remain too dry to support favourable late-season planting. 

The first 2024-25 production forecast by Brazil national supply company Conab for total maize production is 119.7Mt (115.7Mt previous year), with exports at 34Mt (36Mt). It forecast soybean production at 166.1Mt (147.4Mt), with exports at 105.5Mt (92.4Mt) and soybean meal at 43.3Mt (40.1Mt), exports at 22Mt (22Mt). It reduced its forecast of 2024-25 wheat production by 0.5Mt to 8.3Mt (8.1Mt). 

The French Farm Ministry cut its 2024-25 common wheat production estimate by another 0.4Mt, to 25.4Mt which is down 28pc year on year and 27pc below avg. Barley production was cut by 0.2Mt, to 9.8Mt (-20pc yoy, -17pc avg). Maize production was revised up by 0.4Mt, to 14.5Mt (+11pc, +9pc). Maize harvest has been delayed by late sowing and unfavourable weather. Canola production was unchanged at 3.9Mt (-10pc, +2pc). 

EU member states have backed a 12-month delay to the deforestation regulation, giving businesses and other countries more time to prepare for the rules that will affect imports of key commodities. Ambassadors from the 27 EU member states approved the delay at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. 

US presidential candidate Donald Trump has defended plans to overhaul the US economy through dramatic tariff increases, arguing that his policies would result in substantial growth despite projections that his agenda would fuel inflation and increase national debt. 

US private exporters reported sales of 1.6Mt of corn to Mexico, with 1Mt for delivery during 2024-25 and 579kt in 2025-26. They also reported sales of 332kt of corn and 175kt of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

In Western Australia canola bids were down about A$3/t yesterday to $800/t for CAN(ISSC). CANG(ISCC) was down about $6/t to $735/t. WA wheat was largely unchanged at $375/t and barley was up a couple of bucks at $317-319/t.  

In eastern Australia canola values were also down $6/t at about $758/t for conventional seed and $706/t for GM. Cereal values were mixed with wheat at around $355/t and barley $310/t. 

Severe storms brought large hail, heavy rain and strong winds across western Victoria yesterday afternoon and last night with the damage still being assessed. Patchy storms across southern Qld and NNSW have meant a stop/start harvest for many. Some areas received up to 50mm. There were isolated reports of up to 80mm and some areas had remained dry. Harvest yields are coming in well above expectations for some which is making up for the challenging conditions as growers wait for opportunities to keep headers rolling where they can.