Markets firmed across the board, particularly for protein wheat.  Russian cash prices for wheat are moving higher, oddly in line with increases in production estimates. There is certainly some focus on Argentina’s crop conditions, which many suggest could lead to a crop closer to 17 million tonnes (Mt) than 19Mt. Additionally, this is the time of year we talk about new-crop winter plantings and, despite close to half of the Russian crop being planted, it’s dry. Then there is the slew of demand with Egypt’s GASC, South Korea, Turkey and Jordan all looking to buy. GASC values were quoted at US$9/t higher than its last tender; a notable inclusion on the offer list was Poland.

US protein spreads have long been inverted so, when we see a session that tries to normalise this, it’s easy to think it is fundamental. With a smaller Argentine crop, there is a better chance of Hard Red Winter wheat moving to Brazil, and a soft finish in Australia may reduce global protein stocks, but this has been the same ethos that has cost the market plenty over the past few years.

Ukraine conditions suggest USDA’s estimate for its corn crop at 38.5Mt could be 3-5Mt overdone. Add in the unexplained 7Mt China import miss, and the market has plenty to debate. With close to 11Mt done already, the USDA did nothing to give confidence they are on top of the developing China balance sheet.

New-crop wheat values were a fraction softer as the bids pulled back by AU$2-3/t, while multigrade grower bids were $1/t softer to unchanged in some zones.  New-crop canola continues to run along, with values firming again yesterday on the boards by $3-4/t, and more strength expected today in the market given overnight rises in global markets.  Barley has remained relatively flat for the week in old and new crop, and old crop continues to find some demand points domestically. No changes to the forecast rain on the way are evident as we all sit tight for a positive event.