International

StatsCan released an update of its model-based field crop estimates yesterday, noting lower-than-average rainfall and prolonged high temps across parts of the Prairies have resulted in a decline in crop conditions from the beginning of the season, although conditions in some areas were better than the previous season. All wheat production was estimated at 34.3Mt, up marginally from previous update and up 4pc year on year, canola 18.98Mt, down from 19.5Mt last month and now down 1pc year on year, corn 15.17Mt, down slightly from previous update and down 2pc year on year and barley was revised up slightly to 7.6Mt but still down 15pc year on year.

According to the September European Commission MARS Global Outlook, severe drought has led to a below-average yield outlook for summer crops in Ukraine. Spring weather conditions were generally favourable in most of the country. However, as of June, temperatures consistently exceeded the long-term average, and an intense drought affected two-thirds of the country from late June to early September. These drought conditions had limited impacts on winter crop yields, as the season was nearly over, but severely impacted summer crops in the eastern two thirds of the country. Corn yields are estimated to be down 19pc year on year and 9pc below the 5-year average and, combined with lower area planted, production, at 24.87Mt, is forecast to be down 22pc from last year and 25pc below the 5-year average. 

Ukraine’s cumulative 2024-25 grain exports as of 16 Sept reached 8.7Mt, compared with 5.9Mt over the same period last year, including 4.8Mt of wheat, 2.5Mt of corn and 1.2Mt of barley. 

US soybean crush came in well below expectations in August at 158 million bushels, with the average pre report guess at 173.1 million bushels and was below the low end of the range (168.3 – 178mbu). 

Reuters reported that both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have lowered their full year projections for China’s economic growth to 4.7pc. Weak economic activity in August has ramped up attention on China’s slow economic recovery and highlighted the need for further stimulus measures to shore up demand. Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for China’s 2025 GDP growth at 4.3pc. Citigroup cut its 2025 year-end forecast for China’s GDP growth to 4.2pc from 4.5pc due to a lack of major catalysts for domestic demand. 

US private exporters reported sales of 132kt of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

Western Australian canola bids started the week at about A$750/t FIS for most port zones, $15-$20/t lower than Friday. Cereals started the week about $4/t higher with wheat bid $360/t and barley $315/t. 

In the eastern markets, it was a similar story with canola bid down $10-$15/t to about $694/t. Wheat was bid about $5/t firmer to $353/t and barley at about $312/t was largely unchanged from Friday. 

After widespread frosts across southern cropping zones yesterday morning, it was another cold night last night, with temperatures in parts of South Australia’s Mid North and Adelaide Plains getting down to -5°C. Unfortunately, below zero temps are expected again tomorrow morning. It is too early to make any assessment on the impact on crops at this stage, but we should know more over the next 10 days.