Lower for grains and mixed for oilseeds, with funds increasing their short positions across the board.
- CBOT Wheat was down -8.75c to 421c,
- Kansas wheat down -11c to 416.25c,
- corn down -4.5c to 366.5c,
- soybeans down -2.25c to 953.25c,
- Winnipeg canola up 8.80$C to 508.8$C,
- Matif canola down €1to €396.75.
- The Dow Jones up 183.66 to 20636.92,
- Crude Oil down -0.43c to 52.75c,
- AUD up to 0.759c,
- CAD down to 1.331c, (AUDCAD 1.0108)
- EUR up to 1.064c (AUDEUR 0.713).
Wheat was under heavy selling pressure from improved weather forecasts in the US and Ukraine. This was enough to encourage funds to pile into more short positions, given the perception that no tangible new crop production issue exists. The other side to this story is concerns of dryness in Africa and Russia, though this is not yet enticing a bid. In the US export inspections were promising at 671,800t, which is 31 per cent (pc) higher than last year. Crop condition ratings increased from 53pc good to excellent to 54pc good to excellent. The wheat commitment of traders report (COT) had the position roughly unchanged on previous week at -158,100 contracts.
Corn met technical pressure to close slightly lower. The concerns last week about unfavorable planting conditions look to have eased as rain forecasts for the Midwest have dissipated. Chinese farmers are expected to plant 4pc less corn in this coming season. Corn COT had the short position increase from -138,500 to -152,600 contracts.
Soybeans suffered slight losses with another rally attempt failed. Fundamentals saw the National Oilseed Processors’ Association (NOPA) crush numbers lower than expected while export inspections were in decline. Heavy rainfall in Argentina is creating concerns for lost planted area, with forecasts calling for losses up to 2 million acres. Chinese planted acres are expected to be up 8pc compared with previous year. The COT had the funds increasing their short positions from -26,500 to -54,600 contracts.
Canola found support from unfavourable new crop planting conditions, a tightening old crop supply/demand and a stronger bean oil market. The rolling of short positions added support to the front month contracts and contracted spreads.
The weather forecast looks favorable for large parts of WA and SA cropping areas with 25-50 mm forecast. While it may cause planting delays, the moisture will still be welcome, particularly in SA where they have not received much recently. Cash markets will be quiet today with softer futures and a stronger dollar.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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