Turkey has reportedly “warned” Russian officials to refrain from actions that could escalate tensions in the Black Sea. “While the owner of the Sukru Okan vessel is Turkish, the ship does not have a Turkish flag. In international law ‘the flag state’ is more important than the ship’s name or the nationality of its personnel,” the presidency said on X, formerly known as Twitter. 

Tass News Agency reported that Russia is working with its partners on alternatives to the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russian Ambassador to Turkey said “The Black Sea Initiative is by no means a cure-all for meeting the food needs of African and other countries, there are alternatives, and they are being actively explored in contacts with our partners.” He also noted that “it is Russia that makes a colossal contribution to ensuring global food security,” and “after fulfilling the requirements of the Russian Federation, it will be possible to talk about the resumption of the Black Sea initiative.” When asked about the SWIFT payment system, he noted that “the UN offered some kind of half-way solution for making payments.” “Meanwhile, there are no alternatives to the direct reconnection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to SWIFT. All palliative measures are simply not feasible in practice and are designed only to create the appearance of work”.

Reports are rumbling again that India is in talks with Russia to import wheat via government-to-government deals at a discount to surging global prices. “The decision will be made cautiously,” a source reportedly told Reuters.

Germany’s agricultural cooperatives group DRV have kept their 2023 grain harvest estimate relatively steady at 41.9Mt, including wheat at 21.5Mt, down from 21.8Mt last month, corn at 4Mt, up from 3.72Mt last month, barley at 10.8Mt (unchanged). It noted that yield potential fell due to drought in May and June, and the rainy weather over the past few weeks caused quality to drop significantly.

APK-Inform have revised up its Ukraine production forecast by 4.2Mt, to 53.1Mt, reflecting favourable weather. Wheat is pegged at 20.6Mt (20.2Mt previous year), maize at 25.5Mt (27.3Mt previous year) and barley at 5.5Mt (5.8Mt). 2023-24 exports are projected at 32.3Mt, including wheat at 12.0Mt and maize at 18.0Mt.

Australia

Local markets continued to firm yesterday on both current and new crop. Wheat market bids firmed across the port zones and in the delivered markets. Delivered Downs SFW1 was bid around $465/t for January plus while current crop ASW1 in WA continued to trade at $380/t FIS. Barley values remain very well supported this week with a bid in the northern feed market and bids into the export pathway. Canola markets bounced around like they have most of the year, we saw gains of $10-15/t yesterday on the boards, with new crop delivered Footscray bid $746/t into the crush. Grower liquidity remains on the old crop front with growers happily chipping out parcels at current values, whilst new crop still remains on the quiet.

Weekly rainfall totals of 10-25mm across WA’s southern/eastern cropping region were very welcome. SA also picked up 5-25mm and VIC 5-10mm.  Southern and Central NSW have had 5-25mm and northern NSW looks to have received some very welcome rain in the last 24 hours with more on the forecast today but much more is needed.