Daily Market Wire 18 December 2018

Lachstock Consulting, December 18, 2018

Mixed for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat up 5.25c to 535.25c,
  • Kansas wheat up 3.75c to 522c,
  • Spring wheat up 1.25c to 585.25c,
  • CBOT corn down 0.75c to 384c,
  • Matif corn up €0.5 to €176,
  • Soybeans up 4.25c to 904.75c,
  • Winnipeg canola up C$5.99 to $478.40,
  • Matif canola down €1.5 to €368,
  • Dow Jones down 413.13 to 23687.38,
  • Crude oil down to US$49.36,
  • AUD up to $0.717,
  • CAD down to $0.745, EUR up to 1.135.


Wheat found a bid in a low-volume session as the market looks to the Russian meeting on Friday. Flat price strength continues in Russian and Argentinian markets. The meeting in Russia may not yield a market-moving outcome, but the export pace is supportive of control measures.  US export inspections exceeded expectations at 682,000t. Implied volatility in Mar Soft Red Winter wheat finished at 21.65 per cent. Matif wheat was up €0.75/t to €207.5/t, Black Sea wheat was up $1.50/t to $253, and the ruble was up 0.09pc to $0.0149. India remains dry, with limited moisture on the forecast.  The market has no focus on this currently, but its impact could be extreme. so it’s another space that needs watching.


Corn finished fractions lower, trading in a 2.75-cent range. Some support is building on ideas of potential Chinese imports and a lower-than-expected Ukraine crop. Ukrain’s export pace needs to continue before it has an impact on the market.


Beans finished with mild gains failing to push lower, as holders of short positions would have desired. The balance sheet says sell, but speculators are putting too much optimism into a US-China trade deal, which would have to be special to get through excessive US bean stocks. Soybean meal was up $1.80/t and soy oil was down 0.31 points.


Aussie markets had support yesterday, despite excessive rainfall in Victoria, and the lower CBOT close. Australia’s rain has been great for new-crop, but has been more of a hindrance to the ASX shorts, as it has delayed the Wimmera harvest, where potential quality concerns loom. Open interest is slowly decreasing in the ASX contract, but it is still reasonable at 185,000t, so further fireworks are expected as the week continues. The Western Australian market remains well bid at export parity, and strength being seen in Russian and Argentinian markets should keep that going.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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