Markets

Daily Market Wire 18 February 2022

Lachstock Consulting, February 18, 2022

US winter wheats firmed 2pc overnight, other grains/oilseeds firmed in fractions and the macros weakened.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US17.5cents per bushel to 798c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 15c/bu to 823c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March up 5.25c/bu to 957.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €2/t to €265/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March contract up $0.75/t to $310/t
  • Corn March contract up 3c/bu to 650c/bu;
  • Soybeans March contract up 4.5c/bu to 1592c/bu;
  • Dow Jones Industrials Average down 2pc;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2022 contract up C$2/t to $1002.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2022 contract down €6.50/t to €695.75/t;
  • ASX March 2022 wheat contract unchanged at A$364/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract $1/t firmer at $366.50/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.719.

International

Egypt purchased 180,000t Romanian wheat at US$338.55/t CandF.

Despite the risk premium built by the Russian situation, US weather is now getting increased focus. With little relief forecast for the US Plains the market will be sensitive to forecast updates. Forecasts presently include above average temps and lower than normal rainfall for Kansas and Colorado.

Barge traffic is extremely slow down the Mississippi given severe winter conditions. Grain movements were 38pc lower than the same week last year.

Australia

Liquidity of trade continues to trickle. Wheat markets were yet again relatively unchanged into the delivered port and domestic homes while the price spreads to depot sites continued to widen.

Barley BAR1 trade volume in the north has been thin while values have been a touch firmer in the past week. Offers of lower grade barley have increased into end users able to use the lower quality at the discounted spread of $25-30/t for BAR2. Canola markets firmed by $3-4/t.

In our latest barley SnD report it was noted that it is all about exports now. Factors include capacity vs. elevation margin vs. carry to new crop, WA needs to find some back-end business, SA is on track, Vic has a little more to give and NSW has more carryout to shift if it can. Globally, barley exports from Ukraine and Argentina are quickly flattening out, whilst Canada has been impressive with its early season pace, similar to last year despite the drought. This is leaving remaining exports to major destinations down to origins Europe and Australia.

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