Markets

Daily Market Wire 18 February 2021

Lachstock Consulting, February 18, 2021

Wheat gave back some of the previous day’s gains. US dollar strengthened.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down 13.5c/bu to 644;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 13c/bu to 614.5;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract down 8.25c/bu to 623;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €1.50/t to €229/t;
  • Corn March contract up 0.75c/bu to 553;
  • Soybeans March contract down 1c/bu to 1383.75;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract up C$15.60/t to $753.60;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €3/t to €458.50;
  • Brent crude April up US$0.99 per barrel to $64.34;
  • Dow Jones index up 64 to 31523;
  • US dollar index up 0.3 to 91
  • AUD weaker at $0.775;
  • CAD weaker at $1.269;
  • EUR weaker at $1.204

International

Winter kill remained a topic of discussion as to US HRW wheat crop potential damage in the southern Plains after the cold snap . A wide range of estimates remain in play and we won’t really know with confidence until the snow melts and temperatures start to warm up.

USDA baseline acreage figures are expected to be released at the Outlook Forum tonight. Pre-release guesses centre on the high 80s (million acres) range on beans and the low 90s on corn but there’s plenty of outlying viewpoints too.

China is set to return from holidays and the market set to reopen.

Algeria’s OAIC wheat tender results starting to trickle out, with estimate of up to 60,000t traded, though quantity could be higher, at around a US$320/t cost and freight.  Given the load sizes all expected to be French origin.

EU crop estimate remaining fairly positive for winter crops, with reports the last few days suggesting no immediate concerns across the western EU countries and good snow cover protecting from cold weather, well cold for them anyway!

Weekly ethanol figures are due out tomorrow in the US, delayed by the holiday on Monday. Firming bids were reported in the last few days amid strength in the overall energy complex.

Global freight markets have been firming with the increased charter demand and higher fuel program. Some private estimates have put trans Pacific routes up $2-5/t over the last month, though as always, that depends on routes and backhaul.

Australia

Local wheat had been up $2-3/t with east coast markets catching a bid early on but as buyers were covered, pulled back later in the day.

As stocks dry up in SA, premiums over the east coast prices are continuing to hold. SA has some $20+/t spreads depending on zone, and WA is another $20-or-so higher yet.

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