Markets

Daily Market Wire 18 January 2021

Lachstock Consulting, January 18, 2021
Wheat remained firm. Oilseeds and corn weakened. US markets closed tonight for Martin Luther King holiday.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US5.5 cents per bushel to 675.5c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 6.5c/bu to 643c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 2.75c/bu to 643.25c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €1.75/t to €231.50;
  • Corn March contract down 2.75c/bu to 531.5c;
  • Soybeans March contract down 13.75c/bu to 1416.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract up C$0.10/t to $687.80;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down €7.25/t to €432.25;
  • Brent crude March down US$1.32 per barrel to $55.10;
  • Dow Jones index down 177 points to  30,814 points;
  • AUD weaker at $0.771;
  • CAD weaker at $1.273;
  • EUR weaker at $1.208

International

Russia’s export tax changes have not yet been signed off on, but markets are fairly confident that the proposed increase to €50/t­­ for March-June shipments will happen.

Lachstock hasn’t seen any details on the proposed “floating duty” for new crop, July onwards, but it is said to be “formula” based, by which you might assume it would be calculated on some factor of domestic prices in order to put pressure on domestic food inflation.  Talk is also that there will be a new tax on corn and barley exports (€25/t, €10/t respectively) for LH Mar onwards, so Russian export estimates are all over the shop.

US weekly soybean crush volume came in at 183.2 mbu – nearly 2 mbu below most expectations

New flash sales had 110,000t of old crop corn to Mexico and 318,000t new crop beans to unknown destination, expected to be China.

Some more positive talk has been coming out of Argentine soybean areas receiving recent showers. Weather maps are still fairly dry for southern Argentine soybean areas but each bit of moisture adds hope.

The cold snap across the Volga is set to continue for the start of the first part of this week before some warmer weather pushes up into next week with a bit of moisture following.

Corona deaths have continued to surge in the US, approaching 400k, adding even more pressure to the incoming Biden administration. President-elect Biden will be inaugurated on Wednesday.  Debates about the stimulus measures are widespread in the media but nothing concrete can happen on the political side until at least the end of the week.

Australia

The inland storm system that was flirting around on the maps from last week has been entire cut in more recent runs, with dry weather across the country into the two-week forecasts

Domestic markets are looking stronger to start the morning with the end of week rally and Russian tax changes supporting wheat.

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