The Black Sea deal is officially off. Press secretary to President Putin, Dmitry Peskov said “As the President of the Russian Federation said earlier, the deadline is 17 July.” “Unfortunately, the part relating to Russia in this Black Sea agreement has not yet been implemented, therefore, its action is terminated.” He said Russia could return to the deal as soon as its conditions are fulfilled and that Russia had notified Turkey, Ukraine and the UN of its decision. 

The Kerch Strait Bridge, which links the occupied Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia, was attacked by drones yesterday morning. Two people were killed and the bridge was temporarily closed. The damage will reportedly complicate Russia’s efforts to resupply its troops in southern Ukraine. The Kremlin said the halting of the Black Sea grain deal had nothing to do with the bridge attack. 

According to the Alberta Crop Report, scattered showers and thunderstorms across the province over the last two weeks have helped stabilise crop conditions. Across the province, growing condition ratings were the highest in the Northeast and the Peace regions, and lowest in the South. As at 11 July, spring wheat condition rated at 46pc good/excellent (45pc fortnight ago, 83pc year ago), durum at 34pc (47pc, 64pc), barley at 43pc (40pc, 75pc) and canola at 44pc (43pc, 68pc).

China’s wheat production fell 1pc from last year to 134.53Mt, according to official data. Wheat acreage increased marginally but yields fell 1pc, as heavy rains hit key growing regions ahead of harvest. The late-season rains also hurt crop quality. 

UkrAgroConsult increased its estimate for Russia’s 2023-24 exports by 2Mt to 47Mt, citing a weaker ruble making Russian wheat more competitive and high opening stocks. The 2023-24 corn export estimate was increased by 0.7Mt to 4Mt, and the barley estimate remained steady at 6.5Mt. The 2023-24 wheat production estimate was increased by 0.4Mt to 85.2Mt.

Australia

Local new crop markets started the week with a firmer tone on the back of the strong offshore markets on Friday night, with ASX Jan 24 wheat settling at A$392/t. Vic new crop barley traded $3-4/t dollars higher at AUD$321/t. It was a quieter start for current crop markets, with the nominal delivered values a few dollars higher on the offer side.

The 8-day forecast is still looking relatively dry. Southern WA has 5-25mm on the forecast, SA has 1-15mm, most of Vic has 1-10mm and NSW less than 5mm. Eastern Qld has 1-10mm with higher totals expected closer to the coast. While southern regions will certainly welcome a drier week, parts of central and northern WA, northern NSW and Qld are in need of some decent rain in the coming weeks to keep things ticking along.