International

Another round of global cash wheat buying and some heat in the forecast for Canada and the US northern Great Plains gave the markets some support overnight. 

Earlier this week it was GASC securing its largest single purchase of wheat since 2022, and today it was Algeria for 600-700k wheat at US$241-$244/t C&F which most likely is Black Sea origin. Jordan issued a new tender for 120k milling wheat with deadline early next week, after also buying earlier in the week a cargo for late August shipment at $255/t C&F. Thailand went against the trend and passed on all offers (~$268 C&F). 

Brazilian beans continue to be the main or only show in town, with reports that over the past two weeks China has purchased 75 cargoes of South American beans. It sounds mighty impressive, but when you take 108Mt a year, a “par” purchase week is 30-odd cargoes. So far very little new crop US beans are on the books for China. 

The winter wheat harvest in Germany has started, and now needs a run of dry/sunny weather. German farm co-operatives are estimating 2024 production to be 20.20Mt, down from the previous estimate of 20.34Mt and down 6.2pc from last year. Winter rapeseed is seen down 10pc YoY to 3.8Mt. 

There is a bit more happening in corn of late, plenty of heat in Eastern Europe / Black Sea at an important time for crop development, US domestic demand remains strong and this week’s ethanol production posted its 3rd highest production number on record at 1.106 million barrels per day compared to an expected 1.065 number. Overlay this with the record net short fund positioning in corn. 

Reports out of Canada continue to have the Saskatchewan canola crop condition well above the long-term average, and Alberta is sitting just at or slightly above the average. Estimates remain at a 20Mt.

Australia

In the west, new season canola was able to stop the slide south with prices remaining steady to +A$2/t for most port zones to be bid around $772/t fis. New crop wheat and barley were similar stories with minimal movement either way to be bid $358/t and $316/t respectively. It was a similar story for old crop canola and barley which remained stable, wheat was off $2-6/t with higher losses for the better quality grades. 

The east followed the trends in the west with the modest gains seen in new season canola to see it being bid $706/t at MPT and Geelong. There were bigger gains seen for old season GM canola with bids increasing +$13/t for Melb/Geelong port zones. Wheat and barley remained firm at $352/t and $307/t for new crop. 

Rain was recorded overnight in NSW, Vic and SA. Parts of South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula and Mid North recorded up to 10mm, whilst the lower southeast saw a further 25mm. In Vic, the Western Districts received another 5-15mm, recent rains have started to turn the seasonal outlook in these regions. Further east parts of East Gippsland saw heavier rain 5-25mm accumulated overnight, central NSW received 5-15mm.