Markets

Daily Market Wire 18 March 2024

Lachstock Consulting, March 18, 2024

Friday’s wheat markets eased, other grains and oilseeds gained a little.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat down US3.75c/bu to 528.5c/bu;
  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down US1c/bu to 582c/bu
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat down 8.5c/bu to 566.25c/bu;
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat down 6.75c/bu to 586.75c/bu
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat down 8.75c/bu to 646.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat down 4.75c/bu to 675.25c/bu
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 up €1/t to €195/t;
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €0.25/t to €211.75/t;
  • Corn May 2024 up 3c/bu to 436.75c/bu;
  • Corn December 2024 up 3c/bu to 470.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 3c/bu to 1198.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 up 3.75c/bu to 1190.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$7.40/t to $630.60/t;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$5.80/t to $647.40/t
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €1.25/t to €436.25/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €1.25/t to €443.25/t
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$3/t to $318.50/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat down A$2/t to $331/t
  • ASX May 2024 barley down A$0.50/t to $294.50/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley down A$0.50/t to $296.30/t
  • AUD dollar down 22 points to US$0.6559.

International

The European Union reportedly is preparing a proposal to restrict the import of agricultural products from Russia, following appeals from some member states.

Stratégie Grains revised down its EU all-wheat production forecast by 1.4Mt, to 128.8Mt (133.0Mt previous year), largely owing to downgrades for France, Germany and Poland outweighing increases for Hungary. Barley production was cut by 1.3Mt, to 51.8Mt (47.4Mt). Heavy rainfall is reportedly hampering spring barley plantings in France. Similarly, heavy moisture in Germany and Poland during February hampered initial spring barley sowing. Weather patterns in the coming weeks will be critical, notably in France, with drier weather required for spring barley seeding intentions to be fulfilled. 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 11 Mar, 2024-25 durum plantings were 92pc complete (100pc year ago) and spring barley at 39pc (99pc). The French common wheat crop condition rated 66pc good/excellent (68pc previous week, 95pc previous year), durum 72pc (73pc, 92pc) and winter barley 68pc (69pc, 92pc). 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that for the week ending 13 Mar, 2023-24 maize harvest was 3pc complete, with conditions rated 83pc fair/excellent (87pc previous week, 40pc previous year). High levels of insect infestation were reported, including in central Santa Fe, western Entre Ríos and parts of the northern growing regions however the damage was yet to be assessed. Soybeans conditions were rated 84pc fair/excellent (83pc, 25pc). While recent rainfall in the northern and central growing areas improved soil moisture conditions, hail adversely affected some fields in central Buenos Aires. Sorghum harvest was 5pc complete, with fieldwork mostly concentrated in Santa Fe province. Outbreaks of fall armyworm and yellow aphids were reported, with pest control measures being undertaken in central and northern areas. 

The US FAS attaché in Argentina has lowered their soybean crop to 49.5Mt, down 500kt from the USDA’s official forecast, as a hot and dry spell hit the region in January and early February stressing the crop in a crucial growth stage. 

Agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado have revised its estimate of 2023-24 Brazilian soybean production down 0.475Mt to 148.6Mt, now down 6pc year on year. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon estimated Russian wheat exports at 5Mt for March, up from the 4.8Mt exported in February. 

Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 97,950t milling wheat from the US in two consignments, including 35,700t DNS (14.5pc protein), at US$301.49/t fob, 13,350t HRW (12.5pc), at $262.82/t fob, and 7,350t SW (8.5pc-10.0pc), at $217.15/t fob, May shipment. The second consignment consisted of 26,050t DNS (14.5pc) wheat, at $298.19/t fob, 9,900t HRW (12.5pc), at $263.82/t fob, and 5,600t SW (8.5pc-10.0pc), at $217.15/t fob, for May/Jun shipment. 

South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee reportedly purchased 65kt of feed wheat from optional origins, at $243.65/t c&f plus a $1.25/t unloading fee, for Aug arrival. 

Australia

The ASX May wheat contract was down A$3/t to $318.50/t on Friday as the market was a little gun shy as it digested the reports of China cancellations. The 1Mt figure reported is a stretch, and if volumes are to be pushed to later in the marketing year they will be much lower than what was reported. Canola markets were also back a couple of bucks at the $625/t track level east coast, which saw limited volumes traded after coming off the $635-640/t values earlier in the week. 

NSW, SA and Vic have picked up some handy rainfall totals over the week/weekend, while the WA totals were hit and miss, the rainfall again pushing further east. The 8-day forecast issued yesterday has more rain on the way for NSW and eastern Vic, while Qld is expected to pick up the highest totals with 10-50mm pencilled in for most cropping regions.

 

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