Markets

Daily Market Wire 18 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 18, 2022

Wheat markets eased more than 1pc. Canola/rapeseed were down at least 2pc.  Crude eased 3pc,

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US10.75 cents per bushel to 806.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 17.5c/bu at 938c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 11.75c/bu to 953.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €4.75/t to  €324.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract dowUS$0.50 to $317.75/t;
  • Corn December contract up 2.25c/bu to 667.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 12.5c/bu to 1422.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$22.20/t at $849.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €16.75/t to €599.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $A9.50/t to $453/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$327.50/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.668.

International

Export corridor was extended overnight…..the UN Secretary has welcomed an agreement by all parties to extend the Black Sea grain deal to facilitate Ukraine’s agricultural exports from its southern Black Sea ports.”I welcome the agreement by all parties to continue the Black Sea grain initiative to facilitate the safe navigation of export of grain, foodstuffs and fertilisers from Ukraine,” António Guterres stated yesterday. He also said the UN was committed to removing the remaining obstacles to exporting food and fertilisers from the Russian Federation.

The renewal of the corridor has been confirmed for another 120 days from 18 November, allowing exports to leave from three Ukrainian ports (no new ports added). The deal was only not extended for the full year the UN and Ukraine were hoping for. Russia will be waiting to see if its demands are sufficiently met before they agree to anything longer. At the end of March we will find ourselves in a similar situation wondering what will happen with the agreement, with uncertainty and price volatility likely to continue.

Refinitiv Commodities Research reports that despite recent welcome rains across a number of core growing areas in Argentina, the 2022-23 maize-production forecast is down 3pc from the previous figure to 49.2 million tonnes from a planted area of 7.7M hectares, owing to earlier dryness over a sustained period and delayed plantings.

Stratégie Grains reports that despite a late start to the season due to sub-optimal weather in some areas, conditions have generally been favourable for 2023-24 EU crop development. Dry weather during October aided fieldwork and plant growth, particularly in western regions, including France, although this has led to heightened concerns about pest pressure. However, more precipitation would be beneficial in terms of ongoing winter plantings in Bulgaria and parts of Romania. Total common wheat area in 2023-24 is seen at 21.7Mha (21.8Mha previous year) with area potential limited by larger canola plantings. Barley area is seen at 10.4Mha (10.3Mha previous year), while maize area is seen at 8.8Mha vs 8.9Mha.

Trading Corporation of Pakistan has issued a new international tender for 500,000t of wheat. The deadline for submission of price offers in the optional-origin tender is November 28. 

Australia

Local markets started to feel the heat yesterday and new-crop wheat and canola bids came off. Barley was still well bid for prompt into Melbourne/Geelong.

Most of South Australian and Victoria is forecast to receive 10-25 millimetres of rain over the next four days, with southeast Victoria looking at 25-50mm. Southern NSW is forecast to receive 5-15mm with the rest of NSW and Queensland looking at less than 5mm. Most of the WA grainbelt is forecast to receive less than 10mm, with the exception of southern coastal areas which are set to receive up to 15mm. Please stop bloody raining!

 The Fair Work Commission has ordered Svitzer Australia to scrap its planned lockout of tugboat workers tomorrow. The commission on Thursday ruled it was satisfied the lockout of maritime workers would cause significant damage to the Australian economy. Earlier this week, the Danish-owned company announced it would shut out almost 600 tugboat workers from 17 ports across the county. The commission heard if the action went ahead, shipping would be reduced by 90pc at the majority of ports where the company operated. The company has been bargaining with the unions for three years over a new enterprise agreement. 

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