Markets

Daily Market Wire 18 October 2018

Lachstock Consulting, October 18, 2018

Lower for grains and higher for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat down 1.5c to 523.5c,
  • Kansas wheat down 3.75c to 528c
  • Spring wheat down 4.25c to 596.25c
  • CBOT corn down 3c to 375.25c.
  • Matif corn up €1.75 to €174.50
  • Soybeans down 6.75c to 884.75c
  • Winnipeg canola up C$5.40 to $492.50,
  • Matif canola up €2 to €373,
  • Dow Jones up 547.87 to 25798.42
  • Crude oil up 12c to 71.73c
  • AUD up to $0.714,
  • CAD up at $0.772,
  • EUR down to $1.1577

Wheat

Wheat sold off in a limited volume session failing to test the moving averages sitting above the market. Most of the move was achieved before the US day session, which featured a sub 4 cent range. Implied vol in Dec SRW finished at 21.375%. Matif wheat was down -1.25€ to 202€, Black Sea Wheat was down -0.5$ to 248$ and the Ruble was down -0.27% to 0.0152. Demand news saw Korea purchasing feed wheat which was a surprised given corn’s cheap relative value. Jordan purchased one cargo of wheat which appears to be based on Black Sea replacement, although the origin was not specified. In a good show of demand for Aussie wheat, the Philippines have been actively purchasing at values around $283 CFR. This is supportive as its near current Aussie replacement values and highlights our price advantage and competitiveness to black sea supplies. If Australian wheat is outpricing black sea wheat now then our demand profile should increase further as black sea supplies tighten.

Corn

Corn finished fractions lower in a lacklustre session that featured a 3-cent range and very low traded volumes. It still managed to close above the 100-day moving average and has a good global demand profile, but it can become exposed if beans and wheat fall too far. Weekly ethanol production came in down 2.7% on last week at 1011k barrels.

Soybeans

Beans finished fractions higher in very low volume session, closing bang on their 100-day moving average. The technical picture looks critical here and a failure to close higher from here could encourage active selling. A Chinese government soybean auction saw 96% of the 2013 season volume purchased. Soybean Meal was up US$1.4 per tonne and Soy oil was down -0.37 points. Otherwise nothing new, US weather is clearing up and enabling harvest to resume. Back to chasing demand and reacting to politics.

Australia

Aussie markets were mixed to higher yesterday with WA stabilisation keeping East Coast prices supported. Sorghum showed unlikely price strength with limited grower selling and issues with planting seed supplies. This should be sorted out eventually which should add some offer side pressure from growers when they are ready. Weather wise we are still looking for 15-25mm in NSW and QLD.

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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