Daily Market Wire 18 October 2023

Lachstock Consulting, October 18, 2023

Most markets eased overnight.

  • Chicago wheat December down US6.75c/bu to 570.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat Dec down 2c/bu to 666.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat Dec down 1c/bu to 727.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec down €1.25/t to €236/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December down 1c/bu to 489c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 9.75c/bu to 1341.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November down C$4/t to C$719.20/t;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$2.60/t to $733.40/t
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 down €4.25/t to €420/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €1.25/t to €451.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$1/t to $406/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$2/t to $333/t;
  • AUD dollar up 24 points to US$0.6366


Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised downward its 2023-24 Russian wheat crop forecast by 0.2Mt to 91.4Mt, due to deteriorating crop prospects in the Urals (-0.2Mt) and Siberia (-0.5Mt). SovEcon expects that a substantial area will remain unharvested because of slow campaign progress. The cuts were partly offset by an improved outlook for the Volga region (+0.4Mt), reflecting a relatively high spring wheat yield. 

Indian wheat prices reportedly surged to an eight-month high on Tuesday, as strong demand due to festivals, limited supplies and the 40pc import duty continue to place upward pressure on prices. The increasing prices may prompt the government to release more stocks from inventories and/or eliminate import duties to control prices ahead of state assembly elections and a general election next year. 

China’s corn prices have fallen to their lowest level in two years as China’s corn harvest coincides with a protracted lull in demand from both the processing and animal feed sectors. Increasing losses in the pig farming industry and declining profits from poultry breeding are impacting feed demand. 

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his US corn yield estimate 1 bushel per acre (bu/ac) to 172.5bu/ac (0.5 bu/ac below USDA). Dr Cordonnier raised his soybean yield estimate by 0.3 bu/ac to 49.3 bu/ac (0.3 bu/ac below USDA). The revisions put corn production at 15.02 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.08 billion bushels. 

Japan’s MAFF seeks 89,873 tonnes of milling wheat from the US and Canada in a regular tender that will close on Thursday.


Local markets were softer yesterday with the ASX eastern Australia Jan 24 wheat contract settling down $1/t to $406/t, and after the close trading down a further $5/t at $401/t.

Low protein wheat has become a little more consistent through harvested areas. Canola values also dipped slightly but limited grower selling capped the downside. Early harvest results in NSW have seen variable canola oil content from 37pc to 44pc but we are currently seeing it trend towards sub 42pc.

Viterra reported that for the week ending 8 October SA growers delivered over 67,000 tonnes into the Viterra network, with the majority of tonnes delivered to sites in the Western region. The largest share of deliveries was barley, followed by wheat and lentils. Canola and field peas also made up some of the volume. This takes total receivals to 76,925 tonnes.

The RBA left interest rates on hold yesterday but warned that November may be a different story. Minutes from the monthly meeting noted that prior to the November meeting, members would receive additional data on economic activity, inflation and the labour market, as well as a set of revised staff forecasts. In reaching its decision, RBA noted that some further tightening of policy may be required should inflation prove more persistent than expected and that the board has a low tolerance for target inflation not being met.


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