Daily Market Wire 18 September 2019

Lachstock Consulting, September 18, 2019
Futures settled weaker overnight.
  • Chicago wheat December contract down 4.5 cents per bushel to 484.25c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 6.75c to 402.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 2.5c to 521.25c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €0.75 per tonne to €171;
  • Corn December contract down 6c to 368c;
  • Soybeans November contract down 6.25c to 893.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$0.20 to $452.50;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract down €2 to €386;
  • Brent crude December contract down $4.47 per barrel to $64.55;
  • Dow Jones index up 34 points to 27,110.80 points;
  • AUD weakened to US$0.6854;
  • CAD strengthened to $1.3251;
  • EUR strengthened to $1.1069.

Wheat, soybeans, corn and crude

In the wheat pits Chicago settled down -4.5 usc/bu closing at 484.25usc/bu, Kansas was -6.75 usc/bu lower to settle at 402.25usc/bu, while Minni softened -2.5 usc/bu to go out at 506.5usc/bu. Corn fell -6 usc/bu to go out at 368usc/bu while Beans were down -6.25 usc/bu to settle at 893.75usc/bu WCE Canola softened -0.2 CAD/mt closing at 452.5CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing lower by -2 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 33.98 points, Crude was down -3.45 bbl the Aussie was 0.0001493 higher to settle at 0.68651, the CAD rallied 0.0003 while the EUR gained 0.0072.
Markets eased overnight amid increased outside market noise. The Saudi’s gave the “nothing to see here” response by indicating that their production would be back to normal in 2-3 weeks – additionally the South Koreans announced they also have African Swine Fever. Offsetting this in part was the increased concern around southern hemisphere production – both Australia and Argy. The Australian situation continues to give something for both sides of the market – even the rain event this week will be preceded by 30+ degrees and strong winds. Offshore market wires have us at 15-19 million tonnes of wheat and are probably right. Balance sheet pundits are spending their time trying to rationalise the amount of hay being cut or crops that have been simply had stock turned out onto them. From a market perspective the Australian market has maintained a solid premium to international markets such as Asia – this will be given some clarity tonight with GASC (Egyptian wheat buyer) tendering for both Oct and Nov. This will provide insight into just what premium Australia is currently pricing vs our main competitor into an Asia flour/feed miller.
On the corn front we are no clearer on what the Renewable Fuel Standard will look like after the Trump administration finishes putting their spin on it. Given the nature of mandated production its impossible to please every participant in the supply chain so someone will be walking away with an axe to grind.


Locally the forecast for rain remains positive for parts of SA and VIC with a wide spread 10-15mm on it’s way. Some surprising scattered showers through SNSW, while WA remains dry on the outlook. Another cold night through the Wimmera saw temps below 1 degree again for the second night in a row. Markets in Aussie trying to get a hold on where productions ends up, wide bid offer spreads continue to be the theme, low grower selling percentage and ASX East Coast Jan contracting bouncing back up to settle at $362. Canola continues to find support with tight domestic balance sheet.


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