Daily Market Wire 18 September 2023

Lachstock Consulting, September 18, 2023

Wheat and canola firmed while rapeseed, corn and soybeans eased.

  • Chicago wheat December up US10.5c/bu to 604.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December up 10c/bu to 746.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December up 5.5c/bu to 789c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December up €1.50/t to €243.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December down 2.5c/bu to 476.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November down 20.25c/bu to 1340.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 19.75c/bu to 1371c/bu;
  • Winnipeg November canola up C$5.10/t to $763.90/t;
  • Winnipeg May 2024 canola up C$6.20/t to $784.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 down €1.50/t to €444.75/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €0.75 to €469.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$4/t to $428/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$360/t;
  • AUD dollar eased 9 points to US$0.6432.


Poland, Slovakia and Hungary will impose their own restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports, after the European Commission decided not to extend restrictions that ended on Friday. Ukraine has agreed to introduce measures to avoid grain surges which the EU will reportedly monitor.

Statistics Canada released revised 2023-24 production estimates with all-wheat production increased by 300,000t to 29.8 million tonnes (Mt), down from 34.3Mt in the previous year. Barley production was cut by 100,000t to 7.8Mt vs 10Mt in 2022-23. Maize was revised up by 200,000t to 14.9Mt and canola dropped 200,000t to 17.4Mt vs 18.7Mt.

Stratégie Grains has lifted its common wheat production forecast by 300,000t to 125Mt vs 125.3Mt in 2022-23 previous to reflect higher than previously estimated yields in some countries, which more than offset slight lower adjustments elsewhere. Reflecting better yields in Germany and Lithuania, barley production was lifted by 200,000t to 47.4Mt vs 51.37Mt in 2022-23. Despite worsening prospects in south-eastern Europe, maize was revised up by 900,000t to 59.6Mt vs 52.3Mt in 2022-23.

FranceAgriMer slightly raised its 2023-24 common wheat production estimate to 35.1Mt vs 33.7Mt in 2022-23, and barley was revised up by 200,000t to 12.2Mt vs 11.4Mt last year.

FranceAgriMer reports that as at 11 September, the 2023-24 maize harvest was 1 percent complete, unchanged from the previous week, and well below 13pc in the same week last year, with conditions rated at 82pc good-excellent vs 80pc previous week, and 43pc previous year.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange notes that after the conclusion of harvest, 2022-23 maize production is estimated at 34Mt, down 35pc from the previous year and the smallest crop since 2014-15; 2023-24 production is projected to rebound to 55Mt.

Japan’s MAFF reportedly purchased 118,490t of milling wheat from the US, Canada and Australia, including 20,465t of US WW Oct-Nov loading, 34,900t of Canadian CWRS 13.5pc protein Oct-Nov loading, 34,422t of Canadian CWRS 13.5pc protein for Dec arrival, and 28,703t of ASW for Dec loading.


Local markets continued to firm as the week closed. Wheat was up a few dollars per tonne bucks across the board on new crop, while old crop found some more traction on Clear Grain Exchange in South Australia and Victoria, with milling wheat continuing to find a bid. Barley also firmed, while canola remained lacklustre and steady.

The last thing crops needed was temperatures across south-eastern Australia to be 8-12 degrees above average over the weekend, and temperatures will be up to 15 degrees above average today and tomorrow, which will do some real damage.

Hot and windy conditions will really start to hurt crops that are already moisture stressed with no relief on the the rainfall forecast for the next eight days.



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