Mixed for grains and oilseeds.
- CBOT Wheat was up 1.5c to 422.5c,
- Kansas wheat up 3c to 419.25c,
- corn down -4.75c to 361.75c,
- soybeans down -7.25c to 946c,
- Winnipeg canola up 3.40$C to 512.2$C,
- Matif canola down -0.25€ to 396.5€.
- The Dow Jones down -113.63 to 20523.28,
- Crude Oil down -0.29c to 52.35c,
- AUD down to 0.755c,
- CAD up to 1.337c, (AUDCAD 1.0112)
- EUR up to 1.072c (AUDEUR 0.704).
Wheat showed some moderate strength following the previous session’s sell off, led by Minneapolis which rallied 10.5 cents over acreage concerns. Canada’s national statistical agency, Statscan, will report wheat acreage estimates later this week, so any surprises there will help add strength to the Minneapolis contract. Weather has the US looking good, while it remains dry in Western EU, and too cold in Russia and Eastern Europe. Carryout in France is expected to be at 12-year lows, which could accentuate the murmurs of dryness in their new crop.
In the absence of anything fresh from a fundamental perspective, corn fell victim to more fund selling. A slightly improved forecast reduced the threat of planting delays, which encouraged further selling.
Soybeans suffered from technical selling, following through from yesterday’s weakness. The nearby contract looks poised to test new lows as funds continue to pile into short positions, with large South American crops in the mix and dwindling US demand.
Canola strength continues, despite weaker bean oil. The market is expecting a supply shortage in old crop, reflected by strong cash markets and the futures inverse, which continues to increase as old crop contracts get bid up against new crop. The May-July spread has rallied almost $9 in under a week, as funds continue to roll their short positions to the back end.
The Australian weather forecast has improved for WA, SA and VIC, which should see decent coverage over the next 8 days. This will be most welcome in SA and VIC, which have seen a relatively dry start to the year, and will be welcome by farmers looking for some moisture to plant into. Cash markets expected to be quiet today in wheat, while barley might see some support, given strong recent Chinese interest.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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