International

SovEcon has revised down its Russian wheat crop by 1.8 million tonnes (Mt) to 82.9Mt, reflecting Rosstat’s lower area estimate and a decrease in yields in several regions.

The most significant adjustments were made in the Siberian Federal District, where wheat area was estimated at 9.8Mha versus the expected 10.6Mha, likely due to an increase in canola area.

According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry, the 2024 wheat harvest is now complete, with an estimated 21.7Mt of wheat, 100,000t more than last year, gathered from about 4.8Mha.

Germany’s DRV estimates that 2024-25 wheat production is expected to fall 13 percent to 18.76Mt as the crop suffered from repeated rainfall throughout the season. Total grain production is expected to fall 8pc to 39.11Mt which would be the lowest production since 2018.

Rosario Grains Exchange reports that an upgraded area estimate and relatively good yields in La Pampa and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires province, has resulted in a 1.5Mt increase in their 2023-24 maize production forecast, now seen at 49Mt. They note that 18Mt of crop potential was lost due to corn stunt disease and that after nine successive yearly increases, 2024-25 maize planted area is expected to fall to 7.7Mha, 2Mha below the 2023-24 figure.  Significant early August rains were beneficial for 2024-25 wheat, with the forecast unchanged at 20.5Mt vs 14.5Mt last year.

The Saskatchewan Crop Report for the week ending August 12 notes that harvest is under way in many regions, as hot and dry conditions continue to advance crop maturity. However, some areas in northern and eastern regions received notable rainfall this week that will benefit later-seeded crops. The winter wheat harvest was deemed 55pc complete vs 56pc at this time last year, spring wheat at 2pc, durum at 3pc, barley at 8pc, and canola at 1pc.

FranceAgriMer reports that as at August 12, the common wheat harvest was 95pc complete vs 98pc this time last year, and 95pc as the five-year average, durum at 100pc, as is normal for this time of year, spring barley at 91pc vs 98pc last year and 97pc as the five-year average. Corn was rated at 76pc excellent vs 77pc in the previous week, and 84pc at this time last year.

Algeria’s state grains agency reportedly purchased 500,000t of durum in its recent tender, including up to 275,000t from Canada and 225,000t from other origins, believed to be Turkiye and Russia, for Oct-Nov shipment. Initial price estimates for larger Panamax shipments were US$328-$332/t c and f and for smaller Handymax shipments, it was around $340/t.

Australia

New-crop canola bids in Western Australia were up A$5/t on Friday to $775/t, while new-crop wheat and barley bids were both down around $4/t.

In eastern states, canola bids were up $10/t to $710/t, while cereal bids were lower with wheat down around $6/t to $338/t.

The ASX Jan 25 wheat contract ended Friday unchanged at $322/t.

After picking up some decent totals over the weekend, showers are expected to continue this week across cropping regions of WA, South Australia, Victoria, and central and southern New South Wales, with 10-50mm on the current forecast.

Southern Queensland and northern NSW are expected to have a relatively dry week with less than 10mm expected.