Weather:

Overnight rain moved through Oklahoma, offering the HRW crop some near-term relief from dryness stress.
Germany’s DBV reported a summer heat wave drove premature ripening across winter wheat and rapeseed, contributing to yield losses of 7 percent and 20pc respectively.
Pro Farmer’s first-day Midwest tour findings pointed to weaker corn and soybean development in South Dakota and Ohio, with Nebraska comparatively better and Indiana worse.
EU set to get hot again with France and Germany set for another round of 30°C+ temps – that corn crop is going to zero
No fresh weather-driven catalysts emerged for South American or Black Sea growing regions in the past 24 hours.

Markets
Chicago wheat fell 1.8pc on profit-taking despite unchanged bullish fundamentals, with Matif and Russian cash also softer and Pakistan’s 1 million tonne (Mt) import approval dismissed as a price-signalling exercise rather than genuine demand.
Corn and soybeans faded from higher opens as Pro Farmer’s weaker Ohio and South Dakota readings failed to sustain gains, with grower selling capping corn near US$5/bu and bean oil weakness weighing on the product complex.
ICE canola pulled back from its rally above C$800/t on hedge fund and technical selling, though the November contract held above its major moving averages and Chinese demand for Russian vegetable oil continues to build.
Macro risk stayed elevated on stalled Iran talks and a UAE-Iran rupture pushing Brent above $91, alongside a looming US-Canada tariff deadline and soft US housing data reinforcing a K-shaped growth picture.

Day Ahead – Australia

Always an interesting process assessing the shift in fundamentals every morning when we run through the wires and markets moves. Last night saw broad brush selling in Ags but, when you dig into the wires, it doesn’t make much sense. Yes WCE canola should come off given the deterioration of the US-Canada tariff discussion. But, looking at the commentary on the Iran and Black Sea conflict looks worse, not better.
More rain through southern east coast – depending on what forecaster is your preferred, some suggesting the rain could cover NNSW – something that would be welcomed by the Qld feeder.
Softer today but without passion.

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Wheat:  Chicago wheat gave back last week’s Black Sea-driven gains, with December falling 1.8pc to $6.77 as farmers and funds locked in profits; WU shed 10.25c, KWU 15c, while MWU eked out a 1.25c gain as the winter wheat curve stayed weak and Minny held firmer.
Monday, consistent with the market losing conviction on further upside. Overnight Oklahoma rain offered the HRW crop some near-term relief, but the structural bull case — Black Sea disruption, European supply losses, climate uncertainty — remains intact even as price action ignores it.
Traders shrugged off fresh Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk and Tuapse and hits on Ukrainian bulk carriers, and even Pakistan’s TCP approval of 1Mt of imports drew no reaction, read as a government tactic to talk down domestic prices rather than genuine demand.
In Paris, Matif Sep lost €2.00/t while Dec added €1.00, and Russian cash slipped another US$1/t to $216, underscoring that with nearby Matif unable to hold gains and little fresh demand evident, expensive US futures are poorly placed to lead a rally.
Corn’s stalled advance added pressure.
Germany’s DBV pegged the winter wheat harvest at 20.9Mt, down 7pc y/y, with the total grain harvest at 41.9Mt, also down 7pc and below average, as a summer heat wave forced premature ripening; winter barley held flat at 9.5Mt.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn and beans lost steam despite a supportive open. Early Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour results set a cautious tone: Ohio corn yield was pegged at 180.2 bpa versus 185.7 last year, South Dakota at 149.1 bpa, down 14.4pc from 174.2, while soybean pod counts fell 20pc in South Dakota and 7pc in Ohio — Nebraska came in better than expected, Indiana worse, with day three scouting either side of Iowa Wednesday.
Beans mirrored corn’s fade: SU was up double digits before finishing fractionally lower, SX gave back most of its gains to close 0.75c firmer.
China remained a buyer, with USDA confirming another 136,000t soybean purchases.
Bean oil tumbled on what traders variously attributed to a suspected hydrogen outage halting NOLA renewable diesel production or positioning ahead of Friday’s options expiry, and that weakness capped the product complex despite firmer meal.
World trade is down materially y/y per USDA, leaving little room to be structurally short even as holding length does little for the P&L in this chop; a sub-180 national corn yield would tighten balance sheets further, and any soybean yield near 52 would pile pressure onto Brazil to deliver through an El Niño season.
ICE canola surrendered Tuesday’s early strength as hedge fund selling, technical resistance and profit-taking took hold; November settled 805.90, down C$21.50, with farmer selling emerging above C$830 after last week’s rally past $800 defied expectations of a run back to that level.
Losses in Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed weighed further, while gains in Malaysian palm had little offsetting effect. Germany’s DBV estimated winter rapeseed output at 3.3Mt as yields fell 20pc on heat, drought and pest pressure.
On demand, Agroexport expects China to overtake India as the top buyer of Russian vegetable oil in 2025-26, with shipments seen rising to 1.85Mt from 1.67Mt; rapeseed oil flows are up 16pc to 1.4Mt and sunflower oil up 8pc to 0.3Mt so far, though soybean oil shipments are down 35pc, with both rapeseed and linseed oil exports tracking to record highs on an expected 36Mt-plus Russian oilseed harvest.

Macro: US data reinforced a lacklustre start to Q3: July pending home sales fell 2.3pc m/m and 2.5pc y/y while housing starts dropped 12.4pc m/m to be down 5.4pc year-to-date, with rising 30-year yields adding a fresh headwind to mortgage rates on top of weak confidence and soft hiring. Industrial production rose a modest 0.2pc m/m, with business equipment up 0.6pc on AI, space and defence spend and high-tech output up 11.8pc y/y, but ex-high-tech manufacturing managed just 0.8pc y/y and ex-auto consumer goods output fell 1.5pc y/y — the K-shaped split persisting.
Geopolitically, Trump reiterated there are no active talks with Iran as the June MOU lapses, and the UAE severed trade and financial ties with Tehran after a ballistic missile strike, one of which reached its waters; Brent traded above $91 with Hormuz traffic still a fraction of pre-war levels and European scepticism over Trump’s claim that all mines have been cleared.
Trump also threatened to bomb Oman if it interferes with Iran talks over strait management.
Separately, US-Canada trade talks remain stuck ahead of a midnight deadline for 50pc Section 338 tariffs, with Washington privately rating deal odds a coin flip or worse and the auto sector the key sticking point; Carney has signalled retaliation remains on the table.
The Dow eased 0.22pc on the day and is down 0.83pc on the week, while AUDUSD held little changed near 0.7088.

Local: Canola bids were stronger through the west, with conventional bid at A$886 and GM at $877, while wheat was $382 and barley $328 for 2026/27 FIS Albany.
In the east, canola was +$5 to $835 and GM $796, wheat was $360 and barley $305 track Geelong.
Some wheat export activity is returning to NSW for September after a large domestic premium had largely shut the state out, with some protein wheat reportedly done into Africa.
Expect some major bottlenecks at receival sites through SA and Vic this harvest, with crops shaping up for a record-breaking year and another 10–15mm falling overnight. More growers are looking at on-farm grain bagging, which should also please local end users by keeping more grain accessible outside the bulk handling system.