US export data has been disappointing which set the market back in CBOT last week. The lack of data coming out of US due to the shutdown has kept a lot of speculators and traders out of the market. Without any decent demand stories the market is continuing to find it tough to find support. CBOT continues to threaten to price into Indonesia and the global major exporter stocks remain tight. Due to this we can expect to see tightness arise, however the surprisingly resilient global consumer seems to be getting the better of it for now.

Long weekend in the US and congress seem to have avoided another shut-down but President Trump has called a state of emergency to get part of his funding, so the market remains very cautious about where we are headed. Similarly, negotiations with China continue to provide little clarity on the trade situation and as the March 1, 2019 deadline approaches we will once again have more and more uncertainty in the market, which makes it hard to get clear direction based on fundamentals.

Barley in particular remains in a flux with Saudi continuing to sit out of the market. They were expected to come in and tender when China was away on their New Year holiday, but that has since been and gone and we have nothing to show for it. Some other smaller consumers in the market but trade longs remain very nervous and we will now start to focus as much on the results of the China anti-dumping situation. This is likely to drag on as, in part, it is a retaliation to measures imposed on China consumer goods into Australia. Politicians suggesting to the Australian exporters that it will be a slow process. We wait to see how the China beer manufacturer will play this tricky situation.