Markets

Daily Market Wire 19 January 2021

Lachstock Consulting, January 19, 2021
US markets were closed last night. Canadian and European exchanges traded mixed; their currencies, and Australia’s, weakened against the US dollar.

  • MATIF wheat March contract up €4.25/t to €235.75;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract down C$3.80/t to $684;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €2.75/t to €435;
  • Brent crude March down US$0.35 per barrel to $54.75;
  • AUD weaker at $0.768;
  • CAD weaker at $1.274;
  • EUR weaker at $1.208

International

Matif wheat firmed €4.25/t with ongoing support from the Russian tax situation and the new Algeria tender.

Algeria’s OAIC is back tendering again for late Feb wheat.  With the strength in Russian values flowing into EU markets, there are some thoughts that US wheat may work.

We haven’t seen Egypt’s GASC back yet, but after cancelling last week’s tender many believe they’re looking for a board sell-off to try and re-buy.

Argentina’s wheat exports are also getting some interest with bulls pushing the story about possible export restrictions, citing the brief corn exports interference in December and Argentina’s poor wheat crop this season.

Weather maps the rest of this week are very dry for Argentine soybean areas, but are bringing fairly uniform 50+ mm outlooks into next week.

Black Sea  region weather maps have taken a colder turn again. Recent models put lower lows and again raised winter kill concerns. Despite some warming bias in weekend models, temperature forecasts cut colder again last night.

German COVID lockdowns were extended again until mid-Feb. Large protests took place in the Netherlands against lockdowns.

With the US presidential inauguration in two days time, there’s more focus shifting to the proposed new stimulus bill and how much more will be tacked on.  Many are optimistic about the immediate increase in consumer spending as cash gets printed, but overall economic concerns remain in the shadows after recent large unemployment numbers.

Australia

Australian markets held firm through yesterday, the March ASX closed higher at $299.50/t, not quite yet breaking the $300/t level again, though!

Barley short covering was evident across the east coast.

There’s still nothing concrete on the weather maps for future moisture. Chances of some storms in central NSW appeared on the extended runs but there’s poor confidence in those developing at this stage.

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