Markets

Daily Market Wire 19 July 2022

Lachstock Consulting, July 19, 2022

Soybean oil gained another 5pc. Brent crude gained 4pc. US wheat markets gained 3-4pc. Corn, soybeans canola and rapeseed firmed by smaller amounts.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US35.5 cents per bushel to 829.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 36.75c/bu to 882c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 30.5c/bu to 950.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €7/t to €323.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $3/t to $354/t;
  • Corn September contract up 7c/bu to 610.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 38c/bu to 1380.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$12.40/t to $855.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €1.25/t to €681.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$5/t to $410/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $5/t to $420/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.681.

International

The details of the export corridor are still being finalised but the fact that all involved are making positive comments on the issue is promising. It is hard to see how it will work when Russia is still actively attacking Ukraine but the agreement is said to be being signed this week.

Finance ministers from the G20 concluded their meeting in Indonesia over the weekend without an agreement to cap the price of Russian oil, as the US had proposed.

USDA crop progress and conditions published today were as follows:

Corn silking 37pc versus 52pclast year and 48pc average.

Corn condition 64pc rated good-to-excellent versus 64pc last week and 65pc last year.

Soybean blooming 48pc vs 61pc last year and 55pc average.

Soybean condition 61pc rated good-to-excellent versus 62pc last week and 60pc last year.

Sorghum condition 35pc rated good-to-excellent versus 40pc last week and 68pc last year.

Winter wheat harvested 70pc versus 63pc last week and 71pc average.

Spring wheat condition 71pc rated good-to-excellent versus 70pc last week and 11pc last year.

Canadian provincial Alberta crop summary reported spring wheat condition rated 83pc good-to-excellent (82pc week ago, 39pc year ago), durum rated 64pc good-to-excellent (63pc, 33pc), barley rated 75pc good-to-excellent (76pc, 41pc), canola rated 68pc good-to-excellent (71pc, 33pc). Crop growing conditions are reportedly best in the north-eastern region, with the lowest ratings evident in southern parts. Crop development is marginally behind normal. Provincial surface soil moisture rated 82pc good/excellent/excessive and 18pc fair/poor.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal now put the chance of a recession sometime in the next 12 months at 49pc in July, on average, up from 44pc a month ago and just 18pc in January.

Australia

Local markets started the week slow and steady. Current crop wheat bids were softer by $5-10/t. The ASX Jan-23 eastern wheat contract eased $5/t to settle at $420/t. Canola new crop values were relatively unchanged.

The next 8 days are looking relatively dry for NSW, Vic and SA with less than 10mm expected. Wide areas of WA and Qld are forecast to receive between 10-25mm with some localised falls of up to 50mm forecast in CQ and coastal WA.

 

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