Daily Market Wire 19 June 2019

Lachstock Consulting, June 19, 2019

Grain futures Tuesday settled 1 to 2pc lower, oilseeds in fractions up and down;

  • Chicago wheat July contract was down 8c/bu to 531.5;
  • Kansas wheat July contract was down 10.25c/bu to 465.25;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 8c/bu to 552.25;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €1.75/t to €181
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract was down €0.50/t at €371.75
  • Winnipeg canola July contract up $C0.90/t to $C460.50
  • Corn July contract down 5c/bu at 449.75c/bu
  • Soybeans July contract up 0.75c/bu to 913.5;
  • Crude oil August contract up US$1.94 to $54.11, corrected from first published down US$0.60/barrel to $52.17
  • Dow Jones up 353.01 points to 26,465.54
  • AUD up to 0.6880
  • CAD up to 1.3373
  • EUR down to 1.1200


Bourse summary

Grains broke back today with some profit taking after the rally and with black sea harvests pressing.  Chicago wheat broke back 8 ¢ to 531.5¢, KC -10¢ to 465 ¼¢, Minny -8¢ to 552 ¼¢, and Matif was off 1 ¾€ to 181€.  Corn gave up 6¢ to 449 ¾¢ and beans were down ¾¢ to 913 ½¢ (Winnipeg canola picked up 60¢ to 460.5 and Matif was off half a euro to 371 3/4€).  Crude has gained strength amid the ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI up 20¢ to $54.1/barrel and Brent +$1.2 to $62.1 while the DOW jumped 353 points on yet another “potential china deal” story after US President Trump announced that he had a “very good” conversation with China’s Xi Jinping and that they will meet in person next week in Japan.  The US dollar is slightly strong today, with the AUD trading at 68.7¢, the CAD at $1.337, and the EUR at 1.119 – much of the market is expecting the US Federal Reserve to hold interest rates unchanged following their meetings this week but many are also looking for indications that the intend to cut in July.

World news

Rains continued to move SE across the US corn belt today, with the main system wrapping up but with still a little more moisture on the way as the second line of storms moves across from the west.  Most central corn belt areas are “only” forecast to see 1-2” this week, but that’s following up on the 2-3”+ that fell the last several days.  Combiners in the westerly areas of Texas and Oklahoma were reportedly attempting to get back to harvest today, but the more easterly wheat areas should take a few days to dry off.  There are also some more rains on the radar for the Canadian wheat belt this week, with chances for up to an inch in some of the drier areas bringing some hope there.   Egypt’s GASC is back for some late July wheat today – based the latest market indications there this should run easily to Russian/Romanian wheat in the low $190s FOB equivalent.  At the same time, we do note that there has apparently been another quality dispute (over a Romanian boat with reportedly low falling numbers).  Meanwhile, African Swine Fever is back in the news with Vietnam noting that it has culled 2.6 million pigs as part of the attempt to contain the disease that is now present across almost the entirety of the country. On a non-wheat note, the the confusion regarding Indian lentil tariffs appears to have been clarified – the increase in applied tariff will only impact US lentils (as part of their dispute with the US over other tariffs).  Indian kharif-season crops are beginning to become something of a concern, with lower acres planted to date (this can change) and an absence of normal monsoon rains so far in some key growing areas.


Without getting too optimistic here, we note that the two week rainfall models are showing some chances of rain for NSW and Vic.  In the meantime, weather maps remain dry outside of WA.


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