Forecasts remain warm and dry over much of the US Corn Belt during the next week to 10 days. The driest areas will be the central and eastern Corn Belt, as the central US remains blocked from Gulf of Mexico moisture. Heat in the western Corn Belt could significantly increase stress on corn and soybeans, with Midwestern rainfall totals expected to be half an inch or less, except in a few locations across the southern and western Corn Belt.

Interfax news agency reports that the speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, Valentina Matviyenko said it is “impossible” to extend the Black Sea grain deal under current circumstances “the limits of our patience… have been exhausted”. However, she also said it would be important to avoid exacerbating a food crisis for poorer countries. While Russian officials continue to complain about the deal, a Kremlin official told Interfax an early withdrawal was unlikely. 

FranceAgriMer reports that as at 12 June, 2023-24 common wheat crop was rated 85pc good/excellent, down from 88pc the previous week, but better than 65pc last year, durum at 81pc (82pc, 61pc), winter barley at 85pc (87pc, 63pc), spring barley at 83pc (89pc, 54pc) and maize at 86pc (88pc, 87pc).

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has said that dryness in the west of the key crop region means fieldwork is delayed and farmers may miss the planting window altogether. Planting was 40pc complete, compared to 47pc complete at the same time last year and the five year average of 52pc. Area estimate unchanged at 6.3m hectares (Rosario Board of Trade 5.6m ha). Poor corn yields in Cordoba province mean the exchange may have to cut its current estimate of 36 million tonnes. 

According to the Saskatchewan crop report, for the week ending 12 June, 2023-24 plantings are nearly complete with no significant issues. Over the past week thunderstorms brought heavy rain, which caused some flooding and crop damage, although it was generally viewed as beneficial. However, with the rains largely localised, provincial top soil moisture declined over the week to 66pc adequate (78pc previous week, 65pc previous year). Winter wheat crop conditions seen at 69pc good/excellent, spring wheat at 81pc, durum at 72pc, barley at 82pc and canola at 77pc.

SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports  to reach between 2.8 and 3.2 million tonnes in June. Despite the typical seasonal slowdown in exports, the overall export volume is expected to triple compared to last year. Russia continues to actively export wheat amid record-high stocks. 

US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken arrived in China yesterday in the hope of improving relations between Beijing and Washington. It is the first visit by a secretary of state to China since 2018.

Four major Western banks have cut their 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for China after weak May economic data. UBS – 5.2pc from 5.7pc, Standard Chartered – 5.4pc from 5.8pc, Bank of America – 5.7pc from 6.3pc and JPMorgan – 5.5pc from 5.9pc. 

Australia

Local markets finished the week stronger on new crop and old crop markets were also a touch firmer. Canola bids also found some more strength and continue their rally with Matif and Winnipeg markets both up on Friday 

Southern cropping regions have another 5-25mm of rain on the forecast this week with SA and Vic and southern NSW looking to be the winners. The rest of NSW is looking at 5-10mm and parts of the northeast 5-15mm. Qld looks like it will miss out again, with less than 5mm on the radar for southern Qld.

Port congestion increased in most major ports last week with average number of days waiting now over 10 days. Wait time at Port Kembla went from 12 to 23 days while at Kwinana it went from 14 to 16 days. There are currently 18 vessels anchored at Australian ports with 9 currently loading.