Daily Market Wire 19 March 2019

Lachstock Consulting, March 19, 2019

US futures were lower canola continued stronger in Winnipeg, French down a tad; settlements as follows;

  • CBOT Wheat May contract was down 5.5c to 456.75
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 6.5c to 436.5c
  • Corn May contract down 1.75c to 371.5c
  • Soybeans May contract down 3.5c to 905.75c
  • Winnipeg canola May contract was up C$1.50 to C$466.30
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €1/t to €354.50
  • Dow Jones up 65.23 points to 25,914.10
  • Crude oil April contract up $0.57 to 59.09
  • AUD up to 0.709c,
  • CAD down to 1.336,
  • EUR up to 1.133.

Commentary on markets

Wheat markets gave up Friday’s gains last night, with Chicago wheat off 5.5¢ to 456 3/4¢ and KC off 6.5¢ to 436.5¢, and Matif closed down half a euro to 188.75€. Minny continued to firm though, rising 6¢ to a 560.75¢ amid a slight firming in hi-pro cash basis domestically as logistics issues expand. Corn closed -2¢ to a 371.5¢ and beans -3.5¢ to 905 3/4¢, while Winnipeg canola gained a buck fifty (closing $466.3) and Matif rapeseed dropped a euro to 354.5. Crude oil continues to firm, up 50¢ to close over $59 (Brent up 30¢ to $67.5) and the Dow picked up 36 points. The AUD is up a tenth of a cent to 70.9¢, the EUR to $1.333, and the CAD is slightly weaker to $1.336.

Trade negotiations China US, and now EU

News comments out in the SCMP yesterday have suggested that we may not see a meeting between US President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping until June – raising concerns about trade war resolution as such a meeting has been widely seen as critical to arranging any deal (for appearance reasons on both sides). We’ve also seen ag brought back into trade discussions again, this time with between the EU and the US, after comments from a US trade negotiator focused in on EU import restrictions (the inclusion/exclusion of Ag from a free trade deal has been an ongoing dispute there).

Export news hopeful

USDA export inspections came in at 353 kmt, on the low end of ideas that had been closer to 400-600 kmt. Most of this was to Asian homes as expected, though we do note an HRW boat to Angola which should show up on this week’s sales report (potentially shifted from unknown) and that the other week’s SRW sale to Brazil has loaded. Beans and corn were closer to estimates, at 795 for corn (vs ideas 700-1000) and 842 on beans (ideas 800-1000) which included only 4 boats to China. EU weekly grain inspections were also on the low end for wheat, with ~250 kmt there (though these do see some historical corrections on a regular basis). Meanwhile, something we missed over the weekend – Ethiopia will apparently be coming to the market for another 600 kmt of wheat imports (after recent purchases of 400 kmt, and in addition to a separate ongoing 400 kmt tender) as they attempt to ease domestic food concerns. No indications as of yet on how this will be purchased, but something we’re watching given the overall demand impact.

Rivers run, rail closed

US crop conditions will be out later this morning for Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas – two more weeks until we see formal national report. Soil moisture conditions should be up in today’s reports . . . but it will be interesting to see how they pencil conditions (fields have been greening up across the southern plains in recent days, though some concerns are building about weather impacts on fertilizer applications). Adverse logistics impacts are continuing to build further east/north into NE/Iowa/Missouri in the ongoing floods. A number of rail lines remain closed (and likely to remain that way for several more days until tracks can be inspected) and the National Weather Service has extended flood warnings out through the end of this week and into late next week (depending on area – longer floods further down the river).

Rain in southern Russia, dry in eastern Australia

Over in the Black Sea, there is also some rain on the forecast for southern Russia – potentially easing some of the early dryness concerns there (though maps are currently a little light more towards Rostov and the Volga).  Back locally though, extended forecasts continue to move in the wrong direction, with the current maps dropping rains for the east coast and calling for only 5-10 mm into the weekend and dry weather to follow that..

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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