Markets

Daily Market Wire 19 March 2024

Lachstock Consulting, March 19, 2024

Wheat and rapeseed gained about 1 percent. Soybeans eased about 1 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US12c/bu to 594c/bu
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat up 8.25c/bu to 595c/bu
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 4.75c/bu to 680c/bu
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €2.75/t to €214.50/t;
  • Corn December 2024 unchanged at 470.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 down 10.25c/bu to 1180.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 down C$0.20/t to $647.20/t
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €4.75/t to €448/t
  • ASX May 2024 wheat up A$1.50/t to $320/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat up A$3/t to $334/t
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$294.50/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at A$296.30/t
  • AUD dollar up 1 point to US$0.6560.

International

A day after Russian President Putin “won” the election he used a celebration yesterday to say that the war against Ukraine would continue and that his fight to add territory to Russia wasn’t over. Russian strikes over the weekend damaged industrial buildings in Odesa. 

Polish farmers blocked two border crossings with Germany yesterday, as protests against European Union environmental regulations and cheap imports continue to fuel unrest. 

German agriculture and food industries cooperative association DRV preliminary forecast of 2024-25 total grain production is 41Mt, down from 42.6Mt in the previous year. The decline largely reflects a reduction in area planted due to wet autumn conditions, as well as increased competition for land from alternative (non-agricultural) uses. 

The UK AHDB reported that early bird survey results of planting intentions pointed to 2024-25 wheat area at a four-year low of 1.5mha, down 15pc from last year, reflecting heavy rain over autumn and winter. Winter barley area was tipped to be down 22pc and spring barley 29pc. Rapeseed area was seen at 280,000ha, down 28pc and pulses at 236,000ha, down 14pc. 

The Ukraine Ag Ministry reported that 2024 area sown to corn is likely to decrease to 3.863 million hectares from 4.043 million sown in 2023. It also anticipated the area sown to spring wheat and sunflower will be lower, while the acreage sown to spring barley and soybeans could be higher. 

Chinese Customs data shows Feb wheat imports at 1.8Mt, with 2024 (Jan-Feb) cumulative total at 2.5Mt (-17pc y/y), maize at 2.6Mt, cumulative 6.2Mt (+16pc), barley at 1.1Mt, 2.7Mt (+183pc), sorghum at 1.1Mt, 1.6Mt (+394pc) and soybean at 5.1Mt, 13.0Mt (-9pc y/y). 

Algeria’s state grains agency seeks at least 50kt milling wheat from optional origins for Mar-Jun shipment and separately seeks at least 50kt durum for April shipment. 

South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Inc. reportedly purchased 60-65kt feed wheat from optional origins at US$245.89/t c&f, for Mar-Jul arrival. 

South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 125kt feed wheat, including 65kt from the US PNW at $242.95/t c&f, for Jul shipment, and 60kt from optional origins at $242.60/t c&f, for Jul/Aug. 

Australia

Local markets were mostly unchanged across the board to start the week. ASX May 24 wheat was able to push up A$1.50/t to settle at $320/t. Canola was unchanged. Corn values continue to lack a bid as consumers look at what is a solid crop to be harvested in the coming months, with values currently aligning with ASW1. Sorghum harvest 2.0 is coming back online as the large second wave of crop is hitting the bin, with values resilient despite lacking bulk export demand. 

The Reserve Bank is widely tipped to leave interest rate on hold at today’s board meeting, but economists are divided on when they will start to cut rates. All the big four commercial banks predict the RBA will start cutting rates this year, with the CBA tipping three 25 basis-point reductions by the end of 2024.

 

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