Daily Market Wire 19 May 2023

Lachstock Consulting, May 19, 2023

Wheat markets led values lower.

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US13.25 cents per bushel to 642.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 down 27.75c/bu to 836.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 down 26.75c/bu to 833c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 down €2.50/t to €228.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US$0.50/t to $274/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract down US6.25c/bu to 555.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract down 3.75c/bu to 1333.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract down C$11.20/t to $702.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 up €7 to €403.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$4.50/t to $384.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract up $2 to $324.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 39 points at US$0.6622.


Russia launched 30 cruise missiles at Ukraine’s capital and the Odesa region yesterday in an escalation ahead of Ukraine’s anticipated counteroffensive. Most of the missiles were shot down, and one death was reported.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia agreed to extend the Black Sea export deal to bolster world food security, despite not seeing results in improving its grain and fertiliser exports, adding that “various options” were being worked out regarding easing restrictions on Russia’s state agricultural bank, a key demand of Moscow in the renewal talks. 

The Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul authorised three new inbound vessels yesterday to head to Odesa and Chornomorsk ports. Those vessels are the first new ships to be authorised since May 4. Three other ships are on outbound journeys through the corridor. Two of those are preparing for inspection in Istanbul and one had been stuck in Ukraine since March 2022 and is now departing. 

The head of the RusAgroTrans sees Russia’s 2023 wheat harvest at 84.1Mt, Interfax reported, citing comments made at Rusgrain conference in Sochi. The forecast was revised up by 1.6Mt in May due to the improved situation in the south, Volga and Central regions. They see total grain harvest in Russia at 129.8Mt. Russian total grain exports from July 2022-April 2023 are at a record 50.7Mt, including 41Mt of wheat. Expects total grain exports in 2023-24 to be 59.3Mt, including wheat at 48Mt.

FranceAgriMer have revised down their wheat export forecast by 0.1Mt from, to 10.3Mt (8.8Mt previous year), reflecting strong competition from Russian supplies and slower than anticipated demand from China. In contrast, barley extra-EU exports are raised by 0.2Mt to 3.4Mt (3.4Mt previous), on strong recent dispatches to China.

According to European Commission data for the week ending 14 May 2022-23 all wheat exports are at 28.5Mt (+10pc on previous year). Maize imports are at 23.2Mt (+66pc). Barley exports are at 8.5Mt (-9pc). Canola imports are at 6.9Mt up 44pc from last year.

US wheat net sales were for reductions of 42,100 tonnes for 2022-23 which was a marketing-year low and were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Corn net sales were reductions of 339,000 tonnes for 2022-23 also a marketing-year low. Soybean net sales of 17,000 tonnes for 2022-23 were down 73pc from the previous week and 89pc from the prior 4-week average


Local markets remain subdued as growers are in no rush to sell at the moment with feed wheat and barley values unchanged to slightly firmer in the past week. With drier conditions starting to creep in, thoughts of growers are increasingly about the rest of the season and many are now waiting for that next rainfall event to finish sowing. The rainfall received in southern QLD/northern NSW in the past week has made the difference of crops getting in the ground that otherwise may not have and we are likely to see the foot ease off the pedal as sowing progresses if we don’t see more rain in the next week or so.

According to BOM’s latest three month rainfall outlook released yesterday, below median rainfall is likely (60 to 80pc chance) for June-August for the majority of Australia, increasing to very likely (greater than 80pc chance) for some southern areas of the country including southwest WA, southeast parts of SA and NSW, and most of VIC. Parts of inland WA, western Tasmania and eastern Queensland have roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall. They also noted that parts of southern Australia are at least twice as likely to receive unusually low rainfall (amongst the driest 20pc of records at this time of the year. 


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