Daily Market Wire 19 November 2018

Lachstock Consulting, November 19, 2018

Grain and oilseeds markets were mixed on Friday.

  • CBOT wheat up 1.25c to 506.75c,
  • Kansas wheat up 2.75c to 482.75c,
  • CBOT corn down 2.75c to 364.75c
  • Soybeans up 3.5c to 892.25c,
  • Winnipeg canola down C$1.30 to C$476.90,
  • Matif canola down €4 to €373,
  • Dow Jones up 123.95 to 25413.22,
  • Crude oil up to $56.83
  • AUD up to $0.7311,
  • CAD up to 1.315 (AUDCAD 0.961),
  • EUR down to 1.1405 (AUDEUR 0.641).


There was not a great deal of action in regards to wheat markets with very little volume traded within a less than enthusiastic range. US export sales came in at 438k vs market expectations of 525k. In order to meet USDA we need no uphold 471k per week from here on in. The latest COT showed the Chicago short shifting from 65.6k to 50.6k while at the same time KC went from long 2.9k to short 8.5k.


The corn market did very little to inspire after losing 2.75c. with export sales consistently underwhelming USDA expectations the corn market has found itself in a lonely rut. The fact that there remains unharvested corn and the chance that we may see lower Jan yields has floated the market for some time, but this is merely a short term lifeline. Sales hit 892.5k vs market expectations of 700k. In order to meet USDA figures we need to reach 918k.


The bean market strengthened 3.5c in a mixed session shaped by trade headlines. The most significant factor came from Trump stating that China would like to make a deal and that he believes there will be a great relationship with China… On the back of these comments we saw a 12c rally within the space of 10 minutes. Sales failed to meet market expectations of 500k after only reaching 470.4k. We need to be at 697k per week in order to reach USDA figures.


Australia’s east coast prices remain well under WA import parity on the back of heavy grower selling. This is expected to turn around due to the fact that the current balance sheet seems to have gone forgotten. Over the next week we are expecting up to 25mm throughout most areas of the WD in VIC, up to 15mm in Central NSW with some areas of Southern QLD expecting up to 25mm.


Source: Lachstock Consulting



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