Daily Market Wire 19 October 2018

Lachstock Consulting, October 19, 2018

Lower for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat down 4.5c to 513c,
  • Kansas wheat down -6.25c to 514.75c
  • Spring wheat down -3.25c to 585c.
  • CBOT corn down -3.5c to 370.75c
  • Matif corn up €0.75 to €172.25
  • Soybeans down -22.25c to 863.5c
  • Winnipeg canola down C$4.10 to C$490.6
  • Matif canola down €3 to €370.75,
  • Dow Jones down -327.23 to 25379.45
  • Crude oil down to 68.71c
  • AUD down to $0.709,
  • CAD down to $0.764,
  • EUR up to $1.145


Wheat finished lower with disappointing export sales and oilseeds weakness setting the lower tone. Export sales in wheat were 476,000t vs. market ideas of 450,000t, however the quality breakdown featured very little winter wheat and was deemed unsupportive. Implied volatility in Dec SRW finished at 21.375pc. Matif wheat was down €0.75/t to €201.25/t, Black Sea wheat was down $2.50/t to $245.5/t and the Ruble was down -0.01pc to 0.0151. Canada could face further export delays with further rainfall scheduled there next week, while Argentina is also looking at decent falls. Europe remains dry and needs to see moisture in the next two weeks before the market prices in new crop risk premiums.


Corn finished lower as a negative demand profile discouraged potential buyers. Export sales were horrible coming in at 382,500 vs. market ideas of 1.1 million tonnes (Mt). If the USDA’s balance sheet projection is to be realised, then corn exports need to average 900,000t per week. Corn prices in the US have become too expensive relative to Argy and Ukraine supplies, meaning it needs to fall to find that demand again.


Soybeans led the charge lower as weekly export sales defied downside expectations. The market was looking for 800,000t vs. the 296,300t which was achieved. Hard to see this changing until global politics improves. Soybean Meal was down US$-7.40/t and soy oil was down -0.37 points.


Canola couldn’t escape the carnage in beans and vegoils settling lower in both contracts.


Aussie markets were fractions lower yesterday with some selling noted in southern markets which seem to have gotten out of whack with northern and west coast markets. The forecast is still looking great for NSW and QLD (>25mm), but the rest of the country looks dry. Sorghum prices have remained steady, but surely growers lean into this strength soon enough, it’s just about getting the crop in for now.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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