Markets

Daily Market Wire 2 April 2024

Lachstock Consulting, April 2, 2024

Corn futures traded a 5 percent day range following release of USDA reports on Thursday. Other markets did not move as actively. Market movements reported below are nett changes from Wednesday closing until Monday closing. 

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US7.25c/bu to 610.5c/bu
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat up 0.5c/bu to 603.75c/bu
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat  down 9c/bu to 670.5c/bu
  • Thursday trade only, MATIF wheat December 2024 up €2.75/t to €224/t;
  • Corn December 2024 up 12.5c/bu to 474.7c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 down 1c/bu to 1182.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$5.50/t to $650.80/t
  • Thursday trade only, MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €0.75/t to €450.75/t
  • Thursday trade only, ASX May 2024 wheat down A$2/t to $325/t;
  • Thursday trade only, ASX January 2025 wheat  up A$1/t to $348/t
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$294.50/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at A$311/t
  • AUD dollar down 44 points to US$0.6490.

International

The USDA Prospective Plantings report had a few surprises with total area planted to principal crops down 6.29 million acres (Mac) year on year at 313.31 million acres. Corn acres came in at just 90 million acres, down 5pc from last year, and well below the average trade estimate of 91.8 million acres. Soybeans area was 86.5 million acres, up 3pc from last year and close to the 86.7 million acres expected. All wheat acres came in at 47.498 million acres, down 4pc from 2023 but close to the middle of the pre report range. Winter wheat acres were below expectations, but spring and durum acres were above.

The USDA Grain Stocks Report pegged US corn stocks as of 1 March at 8.347 billion bushels, up 13pc from year earlier but below the average trade estimate. Soybean stocks estimated at 1.845 billion bushels, up 9pc from 1 March 2023. All wheat stocks estimated at 1.087 billion bushels, up 16pc from a year ago.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that for the week ending 26 Mar, 2023-24 maize harvest was 6pc complete, with conditions rated 75pc fair/excellent (79pc previous week, 47pc previous year). Average national yields were pegged at 8.3t/ha, with productivity in the core area exceeding initial expectations. Production was forecast maintained at 54Mt. Soybean harvest made good progress across the northern core, with operations getting underway across the south. Variable yields were reported, with recent hailstorms affecting some isolated fields. Crop conditions were rated 79pc fair/excellent (84pc, 26pc). Sorghum harvest was 14pc complete, with average productivity pegged at 4.8t/ha, with production maintained at 3.5Mt. 

Agribusiness consultant AgroConsult reported that following a national survey of fields in Brazil and incorporating updated planted area figures based on a new methodology, 2023-24 soybean production had been revised up by 4.3Mt, to 156.5Mt (Conab 146.9Mt). 

Strategie Grains cut its 2024-25 EU canola production forecast by another 0.2Mt to 18.1Mt, mainly reflecting a lower expected harvest in France. It noted that an increase in imports from Australia and Ukraine will be needed to compensate for lower supply.

FranceAgriMer reported that for the week ending 25 March, 66pc of French soft wheat was rated good/excellent, unchanged from the previous week but down from 94pc last year.

Korean Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 80kt US milling wheat, for Jun/Jul shipment, including 35,800t SW (9.5pc-11.0pc protein) at $208.13-$213.46/t fob, 16,445t HRS (11.5pc) at $248.37-$252.66/t fob, and 27,955t DNS (14.5pc) at $283.28-$286.17/t fob.

Australia

Thursday markets were closed early leading into the Easter weekend and overall, the market was flat ahead of the USDA report.

Rains through east coast were generally pleasing but southern NSW only picked up lighter falls. Early sowing of winter crops is now underway, and we expect to see this ramp up in the coming months.

After a wet week in Qld another is forecast, with a further 15-100mm rainfall on the radar. Most cropping regions of NSW expect 10-100mm with the heavier totals expected in the east. After storms swept through Vic last night, Victoria may receive variable totals of between 10-100mm in the coming week, SA less than 5mm and WA nothing.

China has officially lifted tariffs on Australian wine, the Commerce Ministry saying in a statement it was no longer necessary to impose anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties on imports of relevant Australian origin wines.

 

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