Friday’s offshore wheat markets were a little easier.
The day ahead
Weather – Don’t mention the war. Massive falls with more on the way has slowed east coast harvest to a crawl. Narrabri through to Young had over 60mm over the weekend with more on the way. Globally it was pretty clear with the Black Sea set to get well below normal rainfall for the next 15 days. Argy getting more rainfall, bleeding into its winter crop areas.
Markets – Friday after Thanksgiving is always a pretty thin market, this year was no exception. Veg oil once again showed independent strength with palmoil adding MYR135/t, 3 percent on the day and 8pc over week earlier. AUD managed to claw its way above 0.6500 while crude finished 4.5pc lower on the week.
Australian day ahead – All weather access in NSW will be worth a dollar or three this week with consumers predictably nervous about spot deliveries. Protein and quality grain in general should find support this week, but it is going to be messy.
Offshore
Russia confirmed it expects export quotas for Feb-June of 11 million tonnes (Mt).
Indian domestic values eased significantly as the govt announced it will be releasing 2.5Mt of govt stocks to the local millers.
Argentine chamber of exporters of oilseeds (CIARA) and cereals (CEC), CIARA-CEC president, Gustavo Idigoras, whose membership includes a bunch of Argentinian trade houses, has indicated that Argentina is close to closing a deal to sell wheat to China for the first time in decades.
The guessing game on what the Donald Trump tariff regime would do to global trade continues. Bloomberg did its best to guesstimate what it could look like but flagged the fact it thought much of the talk so far is simply positioning the US for negotiations down the track. It extrapolated 3 tariff hikes which would eventually lead to US imports and exports of goods slipping from 21pc to 18pc of global trade.
Australia
A wet weekend prevailed across the eastern states. Significant rainfall recorded over the past week brought 50–100mm to most of Qld, NSW, and Victoria, spilling into the Murraylands and Lower Southeast of SA. Feed wheat prices have fallen as a result, with the spread to APW now around $70 in the Port Kembla PZ.
Western Australian canola bids ended the week stronger on Friday, being bid at $810 fis, with GM at $695. Cereal bids remained unchanged, with wheat around $380 fis and barley $330.
In the eastern states, canola bids were stronger to end the week, bid around $750, with a spread to GM of around $100. Wheat bids were slightly stronger, up around $3 to be bid at $345, while barley remained unchanged.
Chickpea bids have seen renewed support over the past week. The delivered Brisbane bid was up by around $60–70, moving to about $910 from $845 delivered Brisbane.
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