Markets

Daily Market Wire 2 June 2022

Lachstock Consulting, June 2, 2022

Wheat and corn futures eased 3pc overnight, canola almost 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat July contract down US46.25 cents per bushel to 1041.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 37.25c/bu to 1128.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July down 50.5c/bu to 1197c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €11.75/t to €380.50/t;
  •  Black Sea wheat July contract down $5/t to $395.25/t;
  •  Corn July contract down 22.25c/bu to 731.25c/bu;
  •  Soybeans July contract up 7c/bu to 1690.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$18.70/t at $1054.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €14/t to €791.75/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at A$466.30/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract unchanged at $475/t;
  • AUD dollar unchanged at US$0.717.

International

Egyptian buying agency GASC tendered for wheat and was swamped with 18 offers from Russian origin, Romanian, Bulgarian and French, showing the willingness of the sellers to find homes. It bought 465,000t, being 175,000t Russian, 240,000t Romanian and one cargo Bulgarian.

It would be safe to assume the Romanian will have a shandy of Ukrainian in the mix. Wheat entered Romania from Ukraine by rail for onward export by ship.

Russia will find ways to supply the world despite sanctions, according to comments by Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister.

Wheat price liquidations continues amid a raft of better weather news. This is all about flow because, given the existence of large exchange-traded funds in agricultural markets, should there be a rumour that one major wheat fund has hit the eject button causing others to follow, supports the idea that this is more about capital flow than fundamentals.

There are reports that Turkey rejected a 56,877t durum from India due to phytosanitary concerns and the cargo is headed to India’s western Kandla (Deendayal) port.

India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade has issued strict new rules to ensure compliance with recently introduced wheat export restrictions. Regional authorities will undertake physical verification of all letters of credit, whether already approved or still being processed.

So, where to from here? The weather fundamentals are in the eye of the beholder. Rains in the US wheat belt are having mixed impact on crops, from the HRW through to the SRW it will either help or damage the late crop. Rain in France is in the same bucket as the HRW. You could say we need the Tour de France to start so we can do a crop tour!

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Australia

There has been a pullback in local bids with both wheat and barley back $5-10/t. June demand feels largely covered for now. The market is now searching for offers for August and September programs.

SA received some good rainfall totals this week with a rainfall event that came through on Sunday night through to Tuesday. Most cropping areas received 25-50mm providing a great break to their relatively dry start to the season. This event extended into north west Vic and into southern NSW.

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