Markets

Daily Market Wire 2 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 2, 2021

US markets settled between 1pc and 2pc lower.  Crude oil continued to slide, off another eighty odd cents to $60.6 WTI / $63.7 Brent and the DOW rose 603 points after the Johnson&Johnson vaccine got approval in the US.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down 10c/bu to 650.25;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 10.5c/bu to 623.25;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract down 5.25c/bu to 633.5;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €0.75/t to €230.25/t;
  • Corn May contract down 9.25c/bu to 538.25;
  • Soybeans May contract down 13c/bu to 1390.25;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$0.20/t to $739.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €4.75/t to €474.25;
  • US dollar index up 0.1 to 91
  • AUD firmer at $0.777;
  • CAD firmer at $1.264;
  • EUR weaker at $1.204;
  • ASX wheat May contract down $1.50/t to 300;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 contract up $5/t to 312.

International

The new US stimulus bill continued to see debate/headlines galore. The proposal to increase minimum wage to $15, almost double, was dropped by Senate Democrats last night.  No exact word yet on the date for a vote, but it’s expected to come fairly soon.

Regular US weekly export inspections came in solid for US row crops. Corn was 1.64 million tonnes (Mt) and beans 879,000t. Wheat at 272,000t was on the lower end of expectations and milo was 121,000t.

There are still no flash reports of export sales business to encourage the bulls. Rumours doing the rounds about additional Chinese bean purchase in Brazil isn’t helping any ideas for further US-origin demand either.

Markets continue to be bothered by the delayed Brazilian bean harvest and the consequential delaying of safrinha corn planting. The latest weather runs are still predicting widespread moisture across almost all of central Brazilian soybean areas, leading to more talk about quality damage and overall yield loss.

Kansas crop conditions ratings were reported at 37pc good-to-excellent, down 3pc compared with a week earlier. While commentators haven’t drawn specific conclusions, many would attribute some of the decline to the recognized winter kill/damage impacts from the cold snap.  Regular national crop conditions reports will starton 5 April 2021.

Monthly US ethanol production for Jan 2021 (NASS crush report) was 415 mbu, down from 431 mbu in Dec.

Algeria’s OAIC has called for offers tomorrow of durum, for which markets have started to see a small tick up in North America in the last week since the Tunisian tender. Canada reported more buying interest ahead of the OAIC tender.

Australia

Australian wheat and barley sat mostly at $5/t bid/offer spread yesterday.  Canola caught a bid in Vic/NSW with $3-4/t increases, depending on port. Trade buyers evidently wanted more coverage on coming vessels.

Deferred rainfall maps are starting to pencil another prospect for northern NSW,  with 20+ mm forecast across the extended run window.

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