Wheat values tumbled in Friday trading.
- Chicago wheat July contract down US30 cents per bushel to 1055.75c/bu;
- Kansas wheat July contract down 35.5c/bu to 1105.75c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat July down 32.75c/bu to 1166c/bu;
- MATIF wheat September contract down €5/t to €380/t;
- Black Sea wheat July contract down $3/t to $365.75/t;
- Corn July contract steady at 813.5c/bu;
- Soybeans July contract steady at 1684.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$19.80/t to $1104.30/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €1.50/t to €855/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A$5/t to $420/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $3.30/t to $429.30/t;
- AUD dollar weaker at US$0.707.
Forecasts for welcome rain coming to the southern plains sent HRW wheat values lower, and taking others with it. Forecasts of near-normal rain for Kansas in the 6-10 day outlook are good, but the 8-14 day outlook of above-average rain for the region is providing some hope. Ultimately HRW has three chances for relief between now and May 9. The northern plains is also looking at a cooler/wet period over the next 10 days. Showers and snow for the rest of this week will keep sowing stalled, and wet weather in Canada has also hampered fieldwork
French crop conditions are weighing on the market, with the share of the soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition held at 91 per cent. The outlook for Russia’s crop is also very positive, with Rusagrotrans forecasting a near 85-million-tonne (Mt) crop, with exports penciled in at 35-40Mt. There are reports that Ukraine’s spring wheat plant is up 31pc, with the combined winter and spring crop just below the five-year average. Last week up to 35 millimetres of rain fell across cropping regions, setting the crop up well as we head into the critical month of May. The current wheat crop condition is good
The US corn market is all about planting progress. The market will be looking for 18-20pc planted when the USDA report comes out overnight Monday versus an average of just under 35pc and 42pc at this time last year. It already appears the crop will be late to get in and a yield penalty will be applied on working balance sheets. Corn and soybean prices are at near-record highs, but the USs has sold record volumes of its staple crops for export in the upcoming cycle, potentially indicating demand will remain strong into 2023. Port and trade sources have reported a Panamax vessel carrying 71,000t of Ukrainian-origin corn has been dispatched from the Black Sea port of Constanta in Romania
The USDA has reported that Congress has been requested to approve $500m to support the farm sector, specifically aimed at encouraging wheat farmers to double-crop fields, linked to the global impact of the ongoing Black Sea conflict. It is estimated that US growers could replace as much as 50pc of wheat supplies normally exported by Ukraine, while lowering costs for domestic consumers. The request to Congress includes a US$10-per-acre incentive to farmers ($100M in total), to be paid through insurance premiums to seed a soybean outturn directly after the winter wheat crop in 2023-24. Additionally, some $400M would be channeled through USDA’s marketing-assistance loans to provide interim financing to growers.
Markets were pretty quiet for wheat and barley in Friday trading. Offshore trading on Friday is likely to weigh on local prices, perhaps offset a little by the lower Aussie dollar
The BOM’s three-month outlook released last week points to above-median May-July rainfall for most of Australia’s cropping regions. The chance of exceeding median rainfall is 70-80pc, except for south-west Western Australia, where the chances are closer to 50pc. The weakening La Niña, the chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and other localised drivers are said to be influencing the outlook