Daily Market Wire 2 November 2023

Lachstock Consulting, November 2, 2023

Canola, rapeseed eased. Wheat firmed. The Australian dollar firmed almost 1 percent

  • Chicago December wheat up US5.5c/bu to 561.75c/bu;
  • Kansas December wheat up 10.75c/bu to 640c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec wheat down 0.25c/bu to 709c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec up €2/t to €231.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December down 3.75c/bu to 475c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 3.75c/bu to 1342.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$6.10/t to $688.60/t
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €1.25/t to €439/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$2.50/t to $388/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$1/t to A$323.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 55 points to US$0.6392


Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised down its 2023-24 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.4Mt to 48.8Mt, reflecting sluggish wheat sales and anticipated purchases for the government intervention fund (2Mt by end of year). The update noted that the decline in sales might be due to government attempts to regulate wheat prices with the reported $260-270/t “price threshold” but market participants have noted that in recent weeks the price has dropped to $250-255/t.

Brazil grain exporter association ANEC trimmed its Oct soybean export estimate by 0.1Mt from to 6.0Mt (3.6Mt same month previous year). Soymeal export estimate also was cut by 0.3Mt, to 1.7Mt (1.8Mt). Maize was increased by 0.1Mt, to 8.3Mt (6.2Mt previous year).

According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry, as at 30 Oct, the 2024-25 winter wheat sowing was complete on 3.7 million hectares (Mha), equivalent to 86pc of planned area, winter barley on 402,600 ha (58pc), and winter rapeseed on 1.1Mha(95pc).

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange reported that recent rains in key growing regions has somewhat alleviated drought conditions ahead of 2023-24 soybean and late-sown maize crop plantings, while also boosting wheat and early sown maize crop development. Further beneficial precipitation was anticipated over the coming days.

South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased 132,000t maize from optional origins, at US$254.33-$256.50/t c&f, Feb/Mar arrival. Separately it bought around 55,000t feed wheat from optional origins, at $273.50/t c&f, Feb. Surcharge for additional port unloading quoted at $1.50/t.


The ASX eastern Australia January wheat contract traded to A$387/t yesterday, off $2/t from the previous close. Most local barley and wheat markets traded lower due to continued harvest pressure combined with a slightly higher AUD and offshore weakness. Values in WA retracted $2/t on barley to $360/t FIS Kwinana. where wheat APW MG values were down $5/t to around $410/t.  

The rainfall forecast is building, with some decent forecast totals appearing for sorghum growing regions of northern NSW and central/southern Qld. Widespread falls of 15-50mm are expected to build from tomorrow and into next week, although it will take the upper end of that forecast to inspire widespread sorghum planting.  

Line ups data show that October ended the month with 2.29Mt of total grain on the stem, including wheat, 1.18Mt, barley, 692kt, canola, 383kt and sorghum 40kt. Average vessel wait times increased across the board, except for Port Lincoln. The maximum wait time is less than 11 days. There are 7 vessels anchored and 6 loading at Australian port



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