A little weakness on the overnight swung hard to the upside during the day on wheat – Chicago closed up 11 3/4¢, KC +10 1/4¢, Minny +6 3/4¢, and Matif up 2 euros on the earlier close with some support from ongoing strength in BSEA cash markets. Corn ended up a quarter cent while beans +1 1/4¢ (Winnipeg +$2.9, Matif off 3/4€). Crude oil is up nearly half a buck with WTI trading $42.7/Brent $45.6 and the DOW ended +216 points. The USD is slightly stronger overall at 92.3, with the AUD at 73.8¢, the CAD $1.306, and the EUR $1.191.

Global Highlights:

• Yet another USDA flash saw 596,000t of corn sold to China and 132,000t of soybeans sold to unknown destination which may be China.
• How much corn can China take?  It’s a massive question to the global corn markets and we note that the board weakness overnight saw significant buying interest on global markets with rumours about more China destination business in the mix from other origins, in addition to the US sales.
• Ongoing rumours of China in the US wheat markets have yet to see any firm support or confirmation, but many continue to take the price rally and justify it with Chinese demand
• Ahead of next week’s USDA reports, private US corn yield estimates have been coming in with a wide range of figures. They are largely dependent upon opinions on the recent weather but appear to have a margin of plus-and-minus 4 bu/ac either side of their forecast figure.  We’ll see how formally surveyed figure come in, but an 8 bu range is massive to the corn markets.

Australia:

• The RBA held interest rates steady yesterday at a 1/4pc refusing to move lower despite the ongoing economic concerns
• China continues to play politics in grain markets, announcing yesterday a ban on barley exports by CBH over “pests” found in recent shipments.  Pests are a common excuse for such license restrictions. Few in the market expect any prompt resolution.
• New crop markets were softer across the board by $2-3/t, as we saw the AUD push higher through .74 cents
• Pulse Australia forecast a 2.63Mt Australian pulse crop for 2020 season
• Forecast continues to look dry for the next 8-10 days