Markets

Daily Market Wire 20 February 2020

Lachstock Consulting, February 20, 2020

US soybeans closed firmer while wheat, corn and canola were weaker.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down 1.5¢/bu to 565.25¢;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 6¢/bu to 479.75¢;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract down 3.75¢ to 536.25¢;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €0.25/t to €195.75/t;
  • Corn March contract down 2.5¢/bu to 380.50¢;
  • Soybeans March contract up 5¢/bu to 897.25¢;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract down C$3/t to C$459.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €1.25/t to €401.50/t;
  • Brent crude April contract up US$1.37 per barrel to $59.12;
  • Dow Jones index up 116 points to 29348;
  • AUD weaker at $0.6670;
  • CAD weaker at $1.322;
  • EUR firmer at $1.081.

Market news

Wheat’s rally fizzled out in the overnight session and failed to kick up again into the day. Chicago ended the day session down a cent and a half to 565.25¢, KC -6¢ to 479 3/4¢, Minny -3 3/4¢ to 536.25¢, and Matif off a quarter euro to 195 3/4€.  Corn gave up two and a half cents to 380.5¢ and beans picked up another five cents to 897.25¢ (Matif -1.25€ to 401.5€, Winnipeg -$3 to $459.3).

Crude oil has picked up a buck and a quarter to $53.3 WTI / $59.1 Brent and the DOW is up 116 points.  The AUD continued to slip with the USD strengthening – AUD trading around 66.7¢, CAD $1.322, and EUR $1.081.

Thursday brings the start of the USDA’s Ag Outlook forum, bringing with it some of the first glances at what the USDA is expecting to happen come spring for US crops.  Lots of questions will likely be raised about the potential impact from China trade, both the deal and coronavirus.  Surveyed expectations published overnight by Reuters pegged corn at 93.6 million acres, beans 84.6 million acres and wheat 44.9 million acres. We’ll see what the USDA comes out with later in the week.

In the meantime, we are yet to see any confirmation of China trade activity which raises sentiment concerns with US farmers about beans.  Coronavirus also remains an ongoing macro concern, with the latest two deaths of people from Iran.

Other ag news has been relatively quiet as chatter continues about the locust problems in East Africa and parts of the Middle East, but markets generally are looking for something to talk about.

The safrinha crop is estimated a bit over a third planted versus around 40pc average, and shipping problems are expanding with the massive shipping stem of ~7Mt by our count yesterday coming, though many will roll to March. There are also expanding strike issues.

Russia’s ag ministry is calling for a wheat crop in the 77-78Mt range, but it’s a long time between now and harvest through variable spring weather.

Australia

Aussie markets were up across the board but basis took a chop. Traders only pushed bids by about half the Chicago move overnight Tuesday.  The lower AUD is still helping with price competitiveness though.  Forecast maps are still looking good for WA into the weekend, with models filling in for 10-15+ mm, and 25mm or so across the Downs and parts of NNSW. The central NSW forecast is diminishing as the forecast rain pushes slightly further north.

 

 

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