Markets

Daily Market Wire 20 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 20, 2024

North American markets were shut on Monday.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat previous close was 559c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat previous close was 561.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat previous close was 655.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 down €3.50/t to €194.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 previous close was 429.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 previous close was 1176.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 previous close was C$587.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €0.75/t to €426.75/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$0.70/t to $341.30/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$1/t to $346/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$304.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 8 points to US$0.6541

International

Houthi rebels have claimed one of their most significant strikes since starting their campaign in the Red Sea, after two projectiles hit a Belize-flagged cargo ship on Sunday, with the rebels claiming the ship was at risk of sinking. All crew were evacuated. Separately yesterday, the security firm Ambrey said another vessel, a US owned and Greek flagged bulk carrier, had called for military assistance citing a “missile attack”. The Rebels also claimed they shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone, not immediately confirmed by the US. 

Russian consultancy IKAR, raised its 2024-25 Russian grain production projection by 1Mt, to 146Mt (142.6Mt previous year), with wheat 1Mt higher at 93Mt (92.8Mt). 2023-24 total exports estimated at 70Mt (60Mt), including wheat at 52Mt. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports that cumulative 2023-24 exports for the week ending 16 Feb are at 26.5Mt, down 11% compared to last year, including wheat at 10.3Mt (-4%), maize at 14.6Mt (-15%) and barley at 1.5Mt (-22%). 

Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), have revised up 2024-25 all wheat production by 0.6Mt, to 33.9Mt (32.0Mt previous year). 2023-24 canola domestic use was lifted by 0.3Mt, to 11.1Mt (10.7Mt). With exports lowered by 0.7Mt, to 7.0Mt (8.0Mt), ending stocks revised up by 0.5Mt, to 2.0Mt (1.5Mt). 

Kazakhstan’s Ag Ministry expects overall crop acreage to be marginally lower in 2024-25 at 23.9m ha. Although, there will be a slight shift in area, with wheat area forecast to decline by 439,200ha, barley by 129,500ha and rice by 6,400ha. Offset by an increase in oilseed planting, up by 414,700ha. 

Indonesia’s Bulog (state food agency) plans to import 500kt of maize in efforts to boost availability and ensure local price stability. 

Iran’s SLAL seeks 120,000t maize, 120,000t feed barley and 120,000t soymeal from optional origins, for Mar/Apr shipment. 

South Korea’s KFA reportedly purchased 66kt maize from optional origins (South America or South Africa), at $239.49/t c&f, for Apr/May shipment.

Australia

The east coast market was quiet yesterday, with ASX May 24 wheat closing down $1/t at $346/t, with local market liquidity staying thin to start the week. Canola was firmer again to start the week and with a moderate $3-$5/t lift in values. Flat price sellers are not yet engaging in large swags of volume but at this stage there is enough to keep both the consumer and the exporter happy. 

WA wheat bids have followed the offshore markets and moved significantly lower since the middle of last week. Most grower bids for the current season APW1 are sitting around $380/t FIS Kwinana. Feed barley is in the $335mt FIS price range for all major WA ports, while canola (CAN) values have held up a little better at $675-680/t FIS for Kwinana, Albany & Esperance.

 

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