Daily Market Wire 20 January 2023

Lachstock Consulting, January 20, 2023

Easing Winnipeg canola futures, US winter wheats and Matif wheat, all down a little over 1pc, made the only market waves in a day of small gains and losses.

  • Chicago wheat March 2023 contract down US 8 cents per bushel to 734.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March 2023 contract down 9.5c/bu at 832c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract up 3c/bu to 904c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €4/t to  €284.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$0.50c/t to $307.50/t;
  • Corn March 2023 contract down 4c/bu to 677.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 9.75c/bu to 1514.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract down C$10/t to $826.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €1.75/t to €536.75/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract up A$1/t to $376/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$307.50/t;
  • AUD dollar weakened to US$0.691.


China’s health authority said COVID-19 patient critical care demand had peaked, with 40pc fewer people in hospital on 17 January than on 5 January.

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon estimated January Russian wheat exports at 3.7Mt, down from 4.3Mt in December 2022. The decline in wheat sales reflected higher export taxes, low business activity around the New Year and unfavourable weather conditions. Total 2022-23 exports were still forecast to reach 44.1Mt (USDA 43Mt) but SovEcon noted that the forecast may be revised if Russia decided to restrict wheat exports. Such restrictions may be implied by the statement of Putin, who earlier this week expressed concern about the pace of food exports and stressed the need to have ample reserves. 

Russian Railways reported Oct-Dec grain shipments via railways totalled 5.3Mt, up 40pc from the same period in the previous year. 

Ukraine’s Ag Minister has said that the delayed harvest of the 2022 corn crop could lead to around a 10pc loss of the remaining corn left in the field. There was around one-third of the corn crop left in the field at the beginning of winter, with that figure cut in half since, but corn quality is deteriorating 

According to Refinitiv Commodities Research, good crop conditions in Central-West and Southeast Brazil are more than offsetting persistent dryness in the South. 2022-23 maize production forecast raised by 1pc from before, to 127.5Mt (113.1Mt previous year). While dryer conditions in central regions over the past week alleviated excessive moisture seen in Dec, soil moisture levels in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul remain at five-year lows, which will likely affect primary (full season) crop development as well as secondary (safrinha) plantings. Preliminary satellite observations show vegetation densities in Mato Grosso and Paraná at record highs, while those in Rio Grande do Sul are below historical averages. 

GASC reportedly only booked 50,000t Romanian feed corn at $339/t CIF Egypt in its recent tender.

Japan bought 78,000t milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 28,000t from the US and 50,000t from Canada. 

Tunisia bought 125,000t durum wheat in their international tender today.

US private exporters reported sales of 195,000t corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year. 


The grind continued, with the market giving up a few dollars yesterday. There were still squeezes in the market though where shorts were sharing specific parcels in specific areas. Freight availability was still causing havoc, rates pushing +20c for the entire eastern crop now, despite lower fuel values. 

There is 15-50mm on the 8-day forecast for most sorghum growing regions which will be welcome, although the showers in southeast NSW and Vic will be a pain for those still trying to finish harvest.


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