Daily market wire 20 March 2018

Lachstock Consulting March 20, 2018

Overnight futures markets

Big losses in wheat and oilseed markets.

  • CBOT wheat down 17.25c to 467.75c,
  • Kansas wheat down 28.5c to 488c,
  • Corn down 7.75c to 383.25c,
  • Soybeans down 26.75c to 1033.5c,
  • Winnipeg canola down C$5.39 to $517.7,
  • Matif canola down €3 to €346.5.
  • Dow Jones down 335.59 to 24610.91 ,
  • Crude oil down 18c to US$62.16,
  • AUD down to 0.77125c,
  • CAD down to 1.30823c (AUDCAD 1.00897),
  • EUR up to 1.23346c (AUDEUR 0.6252).  


Overnight rain of up to 50 millimetres in Kansas, along with the potential for more over the next two weeks, has seen futures markets take a significant hit. However, the latest rain, and more forecast, won’t be enough to save the day entirely, with production expected to be compromised by the dryness that Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas have endured over the past couple of months. US wheat inspections came in at 443,200 tonnes, 7.6 per cent behind this time last year.


Corn values fell in response to Argentina receiving decent rainfall. A fair portion of the country’s crop missed out on the rain, but any rain is good rain at the moment, and the drop in wheat helped to pull the corn market down. On the upside for corn prices, the forecast rain in Brazil won’t benefit their initial crop, which is estimated to be 34pc  harvested versus 47pc this time last year. The USDA has announced 206,000t of 2018/19 corn to Japan and 115,000t of 2017/18 shipments to unknown destinations.


Soybeans took a hit of 26.75c due to a lack of any meaningful bullish news. Funds are longer than initially anticipated, and some recent rain in Argentina has been enough to see prices collapse. The jury is still out as to whether the rain will have any bearing on the crop potential.


Despite the dismal showing across the board, canola did its best to save face after losing $C5.39/t in Winnipeg and €3/t in Matif.  Few new fundamentals are being seen, and funds have been liquidating some of their long positions.


Short-term forecasts are predicting less rain than previously thought for NSW’s grain-growing areas, with less than 25mm expected over the next eight days.


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