Daily Market Wire 20 March 2019

Lachstock Consulting, March 20, 2019

US and Canadian grains and oilseeds futures markets closed slightly weaker overnight, while Matif found a little strength; settlements as follows;

  • CBOT Wheat May contract was down 0.5c to 456.5
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 0.75c to 435.75c
  • Corn May contract down 0.25c to 371.25c
  • Soybeans May contract down 1.75c to 904c
  • Winnipeg canola May contract was down C$1.80 to C$464.50
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €1.50/t to €356
  • Dow Jones down 26.72 points to 25,887.38
  • Crude oil April contract down $0.06to 59.03
  • AUD down to 0.7088c,
  • CAD up to 1.331,
  • EUR up to 1.136.

Commentary on markets

Quiet trading on the grain markets overnight left Chicago wheat off a quarter of a cent to 456.5¢, KC off a penny to 435 3/4¢, Minny +4.5¢ to 565.25, and Matif wheat up half a eur to 189.25€ (on the earlier close).  Corn dropped 1/4¢ to 371.25¢, beans dropped 2¢ to 904¢, and Winnipeg canola lost $2 to 464.5 (Matif back up 1.5€ to 356).  The DOW is off 14 points while crude has given up 25¢ to $59.0 (Brent -10¢ to $67.6/barrel).  The AUD is nominally weaker at 709¢, the EUR is up 2/10¢ to $1.136, and the CAD is trading about $1.331..

Trade deal slow, Kazakh leader passes baton

China/US trade talks are either going very well or stagnating – depending on which headline you choose to read.  Given the lack of a concrete deal we’re inclined towards the later, but US officials will be in China next Monday for more talks so there’s always a chance for a break through . . . maybe.  Talk of tripling imports of US ag could be a game changer – if we see something actually happen.  As a side note in the area of global politics, we do note that the leader of Kazakhstan has resigned after some 30 years in control there.  Given the transitional structure setup though, he appears set to remain a key force behind the government as his chosen successor takes the reins through the next two years.

US river conditions cause livestock and crop losses

Flooding across the western midwest in the US has now been estimated to cause some $400 million in cropping losses alone from the delayed/cancelled planting impacts (plus ideas of some $400 million in additional losses to livestock operations).  Flood are ongoing (and forecast to set new record high floodwater levels in spots), and there’s no easing to the logistical problems yet (which will take even more time to repair damaged roads and rail lines after the water clears out).  Soil moisture levels are already fully saturated in many areas, so with warm weather on the radar through the next week expected snow melt is continuing to raise further concerns.

US, Ukraine conditions cause for wheat optimism

Wheat crop conditions out after yesterday’s wire continued to reflect very good conditions as expected – off slightly in KS, but slightly improved in OK and TX.  No big surprises there, and national reports will start up in two weeks.  At the same time, winter wheat in Ukraine is reportedly some 90% good/ok – in line with the ongoing optimism towards the new season crops in the Black Sea.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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