Markets

Daily Market Wire 20 May 2021

Lachstock Consulting, May 20, 2021

All markets gapped lower, except corn which closed near the top of a 26c/bu day-trading range.

  • Chicago wheat July contract down US18.75c/bu to 679.25c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 14c/bu to 633.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract down 15.5c/bu to 697.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €3.50/t to €211.50/t;
  • Corn July contract unchanged at 658.25c;
  • Soybeans July contract down 36c/bu to 1538.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract down C$9.90/t to $933.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €14/t to €528.50/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.4 to 90.2;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.774;
  • CAD weaker at $1.212;
  • EUR weaker at $1.218;
  • ASX wheat July contract down AU$3/t to $309.50/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $7/t to $307/t.

International

Chicago corn fell 18.75usc/bu to settle at 679.25usc/bu. Minni fell 16.5usc/bu to close at 697.5usc/bu while Kansas closed at 633.75usc/bu, down 14usc/bu. The corn market finished unchanged while beans shed 36usc/bu to close at 1538.25usc/bu. Canola fell C$9.90/t and matif rapeseed eased €14/t. In outside markets the Dow fell 164points, crude was off USD$2.15/bbl and the Aussie was trading at 0.7732.

A tale of two markets – corn rejected an earlier push lower to finish in the green while wheat punched through the 50pc retracement and went home looking weak. Increased talk in the market regarding wholesale switching out of corn into wheat. It makes sense but should have been happening well before now.

Day two of the HRW tour in the US put up some more variability but did nothing to dampen the bullish yield estimates from day one. The cool/wet conditions are throwing up some stripe rust which may take the cream off the upper end of the yield estimates.

Coceral boosts its outlook for this year’s EU wheat harvest to 145.8Mt, from an earlier outlook for 141.5Mt compared with last year 128.5Mt

US ethanol production jumped to over 1mbbls per day for the first time in more than a year.

Good rainfall has fallen with more to come throughout the US Midwest which is massively beneficial to the recently planted row crops

Germany’s national stats office pegged 2021 wheat plantings at 2.83mha, up 3pc over last year at the expense of barley which was down sharply.

Algeria bought 300-400,000t of optional origin milling wheat at USD$295/t cnf (this roughly translates to AUD$285-290/t track east coast Australia)

Agroconsult pegged the Brazilian corn crop at 91.1Mt – USDA currently at 103Mt – that equates to an extra 2.6m/ac of US planted area to balance assuming their latest guess at yield.

Australia

New crop markets dipped again yesterday; wheat was down $3-4/t on the boards, and barley for January 21 was $1-2/t softer. Canola was up $5/t along the east coast and unchanged in WA port zones.
Current crop values remained unchanged on wheat, with liquidity still flowing for prompt demand. Barley continues to catch a bid for June/July slots through Victoria with delivered Geelong/Melbourne values around the $275-280/t range.
Plant 21 program continues to power ahead despite the drier conditions in areas like SA and Victoria. Programs through SNSW and central Vic now starting to come to the tail end.
All eyes remain on the 8-day forecast as we hope to receive a 5-10mm event in the areas of need. 25th of May looks like the best chance for SA / Vic.

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