Markets

Daily Market Wire 20 October 2022

Lachstock Consulting, October 20, 2022

Soybean oil and brent crude oil gained 3pc overnight. Other macro and grain markets registered small moves.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US8.25 cents per bushel to 841.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 2.75c/bu at 941.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 2.5c/bu to 953.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €1.25/t to €336/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $0.50/t to $328.25/t;
  • Corn December contract down 2.75c/bu to 678.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 0.5c/bu to 1372.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was up C$0.70 to $873.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract up €4.25/t to  €632.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$7/t to $500/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$340/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.627.

The prices reported above for Winnipeg canola and MATIF rapeseed from today are March 2023 and February 2023 respectively, as the open interest transitions from earlier month to later.

International

Russian President Putin declared martial law yesterday in the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow recently annexed but that it does not fully control.  Pro-Russian authorities can now impose even tighter restrictions such as impose curfews, seize property, forcibly resettle residents, imprison undocumented immigrants, establish checkpoints and detain people for up to 30 days. This comes as Moscow fights to hold off Ukraine’s counter offensive. 

Russia’s Ag Ministry reports that as at 17 Oct the 2022/23 wheat harvest yielded 104.1Mt, with productivity at 3.6t/ha (+28pc on same period last year), barley at 24.3Mt, with yields at 3.1t/ha (+29pc y/y). Rapeseed harvest at 4.3Mt, with productivity at 2.2t/ha (+17pc y/y), sunflower seed harvest at 7.1Mt, with productivity at 1.8 t/ha (+13pc y/y), and soybeans at 3.2Mt, with yields at 1.9t /ha (+13pc) 

The USDA chief veterinary officer reports that a near-record number of chickens and turkeys have died in this year’s outbreaks of avian flu as a different form of the virus from those which farmers had battled before was transmitted from wild birds. Disease-related losses in bird populations, estimated at more than 47 million, have resulted in export restrictions, lower egg and turkey production, and have contributed to record domestic prices of the staples. The same subtype is spreading across Europe, causing the worst bird flu outbreak in 50 years.

Jordon’s state grain buyer purchased 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat from optional origins at $374/t c&f, for Mar shipment and in a separate tender (25 Oct), seeks 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat for Dec/Jan.

South Korean traders from two groups of flour mills purchased a total of around 77,000 tonnes of milling wheat from the US, including SW (8.5pc – 10.5pc protein) at around $340-350 per tonne fob, HRW (11.5pc) at about $415/t fob and DNS (14pc) at $400/t fob.

Australia

Local markets continued to rally yesterday with more uncertainty on the east coast about the quality implications for flooded areas with some crops likely to be wiped out. The damage is still a big unknown and with the rain expected to continue into next week it will not be known for a while yet.

ASX Eastern Australia Wheat January 2023 contract traded up to $500/t while some new crop ASW1 cash wheat traded on Clear Grain Exchange at $350 FIS for Dec/Jan delivery. Old crop delivered markets continued to soar with prompt demand popping up due to restricted access to grain and the need to keep things moving into next week. There are plenty of challenges for the trade and producers.

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