Markets fell further Thursday.

• Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US13.75 cents per bushel to 706c/bu;
• Kansas wheat December 2023 contract down 22c/bu to 823.5c/bu;
• Minneapolis wheat December 2023 down 11c/bu to 856.5c/bu;
• MATIF wheat December 2023 down €4.25/t to €252.25/t;
• Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US$0.50/t to $290.25/t;
• Corn July 2023 contract down 10.5c/bu to 626c/bu;
• Soybeans July 2023 contract down 10.25c/bu to 1468.5c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract down C$16/t to $727.90/t;
• MATIF rapeseed August 2023 contract down €9/t to €460.50/t;
• ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$4/t to $392/t;
• ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$340.20/t;
• AUD dollar gained 25 points to US$0.6741

International

Russia’s Agriculture Minister said 2023-24 grain production was forecast to be around 123Mt, including from occupied territories of Ukraine with wheat production pegged at 78Mt. 

According to a USDA FAS update 2023-24 EU grain production is currently forecast at 284Mt, up from the 267mt in 2022-23. Favourable initial crop development conditions are reported across the EU, although spring rains in the EU southwest will be critical to replenish soil moisture and allow for yields to bounce back to average levels. Wheat production is pegged at 137.8Mt (134.3Mt previous year), corn at 64.4Mt (52Mt previous year) and barley at 53Mt (51.4Mt). 

The EU is looking to ban the domestic sale of Ukraine grain in five member states including Poland, and will only allow transit to other member states and countries outside the bloc. Ukrainian grain can either enter the five countries in sealed containers or with supporting documentation that it is bound for other countries. The European Commission will allocate €100M to compensate farmers in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. 

Refinitiv Commodities Research has pegged China’s 2023-24 maize production at 279.0Mt, noting favourable rainfall across major growing areas. Despite policies favouring the expansion of oilseed acreage, attractive maize prices have kept planted area broadly steady year on year. 

US wheat sales last week of 259,000t were up 91pc from the previous week and 93pc from the prior 4-week average. Corn sales of 312,400t were down 41pc from the previous week and 79pc from the prior 4-week average and soybean sales of 100,100t were down 73pc from the previous week and 58pc from the prior 4-week average. 

Importers from the Philippines reportedly purchased around 60 000t feed wheat from Australia and 50 000t South American corn, both for July shipment.

Japan’s MAFF purchased 66,377t wheat, including 5,387t US WW, 30,090t US DNS (min. 14pc protein) and 30,900t Australian ASW, for Jun/Aug loading.

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Australia

Local wheat and barley bids remained largely unchanged yesterday, amid modest liquidity. A late barley bid in SA saw tonnes get traded. Eastern Australian buyers showed interest in lower grade wheat. Canola bids eased slightly, finishing the day down around $10/t.

Planting continues to ramp up across the country with some decent rainfall in SA and Vic. Parts of WA are looking for another drink. Growers are selling slowly, holding onto stock until they see a touch more rain.