Markets

Daily Market Wire 21 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 21, 2024

US winter wheat futures gained 3 percent.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat up US20.25c/bu to 579.25c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat up 19.5c/bu to 581c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat up 10c/bu to 665.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 up €4.50/t to €199.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 3c/bu to 432.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 7.25c/bu to 1183.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$5.70/t to $593.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €0.50/t to €426.25/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$6.30/t to $335/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$6/t to $340/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$304.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 8 points to US$0.6549

International

President Biden said yesterday that the US will announce a new package of sanctions against Russia over the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the ongoing Ukraine war. The package was reportedly already being planned to mark the second anniversary of the war but will now be reconsidered and supplemented in response to Navalny’s death. 

According to the Ukrainian grain traders’ union, Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseeds exports rose to 3.1Mt in the first half of Feb, compared to 2.2Mt in the same period in January. The total volume included 1.5Mt of corn, almost 1.1Mt of wheat, 130kt of barley, 191kt of rapeseed and a small volume of sunflower seeds. 

Farmers protested across Poland yesterday, enforcing a near total blockade of the Ukrainian border, with protesters at the Medyka border reportedly opening railway carriages allowing grain to spill out onto the tracks. 

Brazil’s Conab reports that as at 17 Feb, 2023-24 soybean harvest was 29pc complete (23pc previous year), with reduced rains benefiting harvesting and crop maturation in the state of Mato Grosso. Conditions have improved in Rio Grande do Sul, but rains stalled harvest progress in Paraná. Primary (full-season) maize plantings 98pc complete (99pc), harvest 21pc complete (14pc). Crops vary across some key states, with below-average development noted in Minas Gerais, contrasting with better conditions in Rio Grande do Sul. Secondary (Safrinha) sowing 45pc complete (33pc). In the key growing state of Mato Grosso, seeding and development is seen as positive. However, planting in Mato Grosso do Sul has been negatively impacted by limited water availabilities, while recent precipitation has hindered fieldwork in Paraná. 

Jordan’s state grains buyer reportedly purchased 50kt of hard milling wheat from optional origins at US$240.50/t c&f for shipment in the second half of May. 

Japan’s MAFF seeks 115,921 tonnes of milling wheat from the US, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday.

Australia

The slide in local values continued but with very little getting traded. Consumers are happy to watch the market drift and only buy hand to mouth, while asset owners are keeping capacity lines up but doing it on thin trade margins, also keeping their appetite hand to mouth. The grower is standing off for now, but this may wear thin as cash flow becomes a key factor. Northern NSW and Qld markets are feeling the weight of a sorghum crop that is showing some handy yields. Sorghum values have steadied with more export demand popping up but more will be needed as harvest kicks off in a few weeks. 

The BOM’s latest Climate Driver Update released yesterday notes that El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in oceanic indicators. International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four of seven climate models indicating a return to neutral levels in April and all models neutral in May. The update noted that around 50pc of El Niño events have been followed by a neutral year, and 40–50pc have been followed by La Niña, based on historical records from 1900. However, global oceans have warmed significantly over the past 50 years and were the warmest on record globally between April 2023 and January 2024. These changes may make a difference when predicting future ENSO events based on historical activity

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