Markets

Daily Market Wire 21 January 2021

Lachstock Consulting, January 21, 2021

Futures closed mostly 1pc lower. Winnipeg canola was down 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down US4.5 cents per bushel to 667.75c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 7c/bu to 637c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract down 6c/bu to 637.5c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €1.75/t to €234/t;
  • Corn March contract down 4c/bu to 522c;
  • Soybeans March contract down 16.25c/bu to 1369.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract down C$15.80/t to $648.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down €5.25/t to €427.50;
  • Brent crude March up US$0.18 per barrel to $56.08;
  • Dow Jones index up 258 points to  31,188 points;
  • AUD firmer at $0.775;
  • CAD firmer at $1.263;
  • EUR weaker at $1.211

International

Turkey extended its ongoing wheat tender to include white wheat.  In theory that opens up some more supply origins, though at these prices and given freight we don’t see much changing there.  They’ve been threatening to cancel over high prices, so we’ll see how that works for them.

Algeria’s OAIC wheat tender reportedly traded around the $314/t level CandF for two boats. No detail yet but at that price it would be a tight spread between EU origins and potentially Argentina.  No indication yet that HRW was quite cheap enough to price into the offer mix.

The new US President Biden has signed a wave of executive orders following the inauguration though only a few are economically related. Most significant to the economy is the continuation on eviction bans and deferred student loan payments amidst the coronavirus slowdowns.

Timing on the new US stimulus plan is still unknown, but with some acceptance of the practical realities of passing legislation most ideas are pushing into early Feb.  The biggest question remains just how big the monetary outlays will be – and political fights over the details are already simmering.

With Biden in office some new questions are coming out about the future of the US/China trade deal – despite the big corn purchases they have come nowhere close to reaching commitments for ag purchases for the last year.

As mentioned the other day, ideas continue to trend up slightly for South American crops with more private estimates pushing up overnight.  Weather maps still fairly dry for Argentina but overall accumulation expected to be enough to help keep the crops moving

New strikes are in play in Argentina again – this time truckers, with highways being blocked and trucks stopped in many places.  Brazilian trucker strikes are also still expected to start up in a week there

Tyson Foods has been hit with a near quarter-billion-dollar settlement for price fixing and antitrust activity in the poultry industry

The EPA did end up granting some more blending waivers to US refineries mid-day yesterday (late evening in the US) but not as many as some had expected (45 open requests still outstanding).  Reported volumes work out to maybe 200 million gallons of ethanol, though Lachstock has not confirmed those impacts.

Australia

Local markets took a breather across the south yesterday with wheat a buck or two weaker.  Barley held firmer though with ongoing short-covering activity

Sorghum markets remain fairly firm across the Downs/NNSW. We continue to see more late sorghum going in after the rains, boosting planted acres massively with plenty of excitement to go around.

Weather maps are turning wet again for SA and Vic, with the BOM models strengthening the outlooks for the storm event into later next week.

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