Daily Market Wire 21 June 2019

Lachstock Consulting June 21, 2019

Grain and oilseeds futures were mostly firmer;

  • Chicago wheat July contract was up 4.25c/bu to 526.5;
  • Kansas wheat July contract was up 3c/bu to 460.5;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 3.25c/bu to 538.25;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €1/t to €180
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract was up €0.25/t at €370
  • Winnipeg canola July contract up $C0.30/t to $C455.80
  • Corn July contract up 9c/bu to 450;
  • Soybeans July contract up 12.25c/bu to 915.5;
  • Crude oil August contract up US$3.10/barrel to $57.07
  • Dow Jones up 249.17 points to 26,753.17
  • AUD up to 0.6930
  • CAD up to 1.3173
  • EUR up to 1.1299

Market wrap

Grains found something of a floor overnight, with Chicago wheat closing +4¢ to 426.5, KC +3¢ to 460.5¢, Minny -3¢ to 538 1/4¢ (with solid rains across Canada strengthening spring wheat outlooks there), and Matif was up a euro to 180€ on the earlier close. Corn proved the star of the session and picked up 9¢ to 450¢ and and beans closed +12¢ to 915.5¢, while canola was up 30¢ on Winnipeg to $455.8 (Matif up a quarter of a euro to 370€). Crude has continued to firm globally, with WTI up 34¢ to $57.4/barrel (brent +40¢) and the DOW was up 249 points. The USD has weakened after the other day’s Fed announcements (seen as supportive of future rate cuts), with the AUD up to 69.3¢, the CAD to $1.318, and the EUR to $1.129. With the ongoing politics in the middle east (and comments from US President Trump not helping to calm any nerves), concerns are high about the broader macro environment – noting much discussion about the spike in gold as some money moves towards “safe havens” in case the situation escalates.

A reminder that markets will be watching the US acreage and stocks reports next Friday night (June 28th) – please keep in mind the potential for volatility around this report if you have positions on the board.

World news

Saudi Arabia’s SAGO is back in the market for barley again, but only tendering for 900,000t (for Aug/Sep/Oct slots). That compares with tenders for 1.5 million tonnes (Mt) and 1.7 Mt at this time of 2017 and 2018 respectively, and raises concerns about SAGO demand this season (particularly following their minimal purchases year to date). Tender results should be out later in the weekend, and will be priced basis Black Sea execution – Australia pencils some $50+/t away for these windows with the new season northern hemisphere crops hitting harvest.

On the same note, despite some rumors about renewed Chinese buying interest we haven’t seen any formal indications of resolution to the anti-dumping investigations with barley there. Export sales were surprisingly supportive in the US on beans, with total sales (old and new) of 770,000t on the high end of ideas (and noting that only ~200,000t of these combined sales was unknown/potentially China). Corn and wheat sales were well on the low end of expectations though, with combined corn sales under 400,000t (vs ideas up towards 900) and wheat at 187,000t (vs ideas 200-500). News reports are suggesting there have been more cases of ASF found in China – not surprising given the extent of the spread, but a quick reminder to the market that the demand problems there have not gone away. Ongoing wet weather forecasts in the mid-west (another 1″+ on the maps for most of the corn belt) are not helping planting ideas though, and field reports coming in as people tour the mid-west to check on plantings are far from supportive to the crop – confirming the many still flooded fields, slow emergence, and partial plantings.


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